Goldman Sachs has projected that Brent crude prices could remain above 100 dollars per barrel throughout 2026 if disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz continue for an extended period.
In a note released after the recent ceasefire announcement between the United States and Iran, the investment bank stated that its oil price outlook remains tilted to the upside despite short term easing in geopolitical tensions.
The bank had earlier revised down its price expectations following news of a two week ceasefire agreement. However, it outlined multiple scenarios, including one in which tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly restricted for another month.
Under this scenario, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average above 100 dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026 and across the full year.
Although the ceasefire is tied to the reopening of the strait, vessel movement remains tightly controlled. Iran continues to regulate access to the waterway, determining which ships are allowed to transit.
Shipping companies and tanker operators are still awaiting clear security assurances before resuming normal operations, contributing to continued uncertainty in global oil supply flows.
Market reaction reflects this uncertainty. Oil prices rebounded in early trading, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate rising by about 3 percent to trade near 97 dollars per barrel. This followed a period in which WTI briefly traded at a premium to Brent.
According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, transit through the strait remains subject to coordination with Iranian authorities, indicating that the route is not fully reopened but operating under restricted conditions.
Goldman Sachs warned that if limited traffic persists beyond one month, it could lead to further supply losses from Middle Eastern producers. In that case, the bank estimates that Brent crude could average around 120 dollars per barrel in the third quarter and about 115 dollars per barrel in the final quarter of the year.
The outlook underscores the continued influence of geopolitical developments on oil markets, even as temporary ceasefire arrangements attempt to stabilise the situation.