Goldman Sachs has warned that soaring oil transportation costs could drive crude prices above its current forecast, as the Iran war and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to strain global shipping.
The investment bank estimates that average global oil freight costs have climbed to more than $20 per barrel, compared with about $3 per barrel a year ago. Shipping rates on Middle Eastern routes have risen to approximately $35 per barrel, increasing the cost of moving crude to international markets.
According to the bank’s analysts, the prolonged shipping crisis poses an upside risk to its baseline forecast of Brent crude reaching $90 per barrel by the end of 2026. The outlook remains exposed to further attacks on shipping, damage to oil infrastructure and a sustained geopolitical risk premium.
Goldman Sachs’ commodity analysts outlined the risks in a note reported by Bloomberg, warning that elevated freight charges could persist in the near term because there is no clear resolution to the Middle East crisis.
The increase in shipping expenses reflects several additional costs associated with transporting oil through the region. Goldman estimates that war-risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz account for an extra $7 per barrel, while higher fuel costs add $4 per barrel. Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman contribute another $4 per barrel.
These transfers have kept numerous tankers occupied on shuttle routes, limiting the number of vessels available to carry crude along other major international trade routes.
The disruption has also driven daily tanker charter costs to unprecedented levels. Rates for supertankers transporting oil from the Gulf to East Asia exceeded $1.4 million per day in early October, marking a record high as the conflict forced shipping operators to adopt longer and less efficient routes.
The resulting shortage of available supertankers has extended beyond the largest vessels. Aframax and Suezmax tankers, which serve smaller cargoes and different shipping routes, have also experienced increased demand and higher daily rates as refiners and traders compete for limited vessel capacity.
The combination of inefficient loading operations in the Middle East and tight supertanker availability has therefore spread the cost pressure across the wider tanker market.
For oil buyers, higher freight charges can increase the final cost of delivered crude even when benchmark prices remain stable or decline. The additional expenses can also change purchasing decisions, making some distant supplies less competitive and encouraging refiners to source crude from closer markets.
Goldman Sachs’ warning highlights the possibility that shipping disruptions could keep oil prices higher than previously expected, even without a fresh decline in crude production. Further attacks on vessels, damage to energy infrastructure or a prolonged interruption to shipping could intensify the pressure.
The bank’s $90-per-barrel Brent forecast remains its baseline outlook, but analysts say persistent freight costs and geopolitical risks could push prices above that level by year-end.