A potential US ban on diesel exports could initially reduce domestic diesel prices but eventually drive petrol prices higher as fuel inventories build and force refiners to cut production, Goldman Sachs has warned.
The investment bank said the effect of an export restriction would depend largely on how quickly available diesel storage capacity is exhausted, with the initial price relief expected to reverse once storage facilities approach their limits.
Goldman’s analysis comes amid renewed discussion in Washington over restrictions on US diesel exports, including a possible 90-day suspension. The bank said export curbs or quotas were a plausible scenario, although they were not its base case.
Under its model, US retail diesel prices could fall by about $0.25 per gallon each week while sufficient storage space remains available. With US diesel prices currently around $6.50 per gallon, the initial decline would amount to roughly 4 percent of prevailing prices.
The price effect would change once storage capacity becomes saturated.
According to Goldman, prolonged restrictions would create wider problems because US refineries produce diesel, petrol and jet fuel together. As diesel inventories accumulate, refiners could be forced to reduce crude processing, eventually limiting the supply of other fuels.
Once storage becomes constrained, Goldman estimates that US petrol prices could rise by about $0.30 per gallon per week for each additional week that the restriction remains in place.
The potential policy could also have significant effects outside the United States, particularly in Europe, which is a major destination for US refined petroleum products.
Goldman estimates that a US diesel export restriction could increase European wholesale diesel prices by about $3 per barrel, equivalent to roughly 2 percent of current prices.
The impact could be partly moderated if European countries release diesel from emergency reserves. Goldman estimates that such an intervention could offset about half of the projected increase in European diesel prices.
The bank also expects the eventual lifting of an export restriction to create another adjustment in global fuel markets.
Once US exports resume, American diesel prices would reconnect with international markets, including Europe. That could push US diesel prices higher while easing prices in overseas markets as additional American supplies return.
The analysis comes as the United States faces elevated diesel prices amid disruptions to global fuel supplies. US diesel exports have increased to about 1.6 million barrels per day, up from roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while domestic inventories remain under pressure.
The proposed restriction has already generated differing views within the US administration. Energy Secretary Chris Wright previously said a blanket diesel export ban would not work and could instead increase petrol and jet-fuel prices. A White House official also denied a September 23 report that Washington was preparing a 90-day ban.
Goldman’s assessment points to a potential policy trade-off: restricting diesel exports could provide short-term relief for US diesel consumers by keeping more supply at home, but the benefit could diminish as storage fills.
A prolonged restriction could then affect petrol prices and fuel production, while increasing costs for overseas buyers that depend on US diesel supplies.
The bank’s analysis suggests that the ultimate effect of an export ban would depend not only on the volume of diesel retained domestically but also on how refiners respond once storage capacity becomes constrained and how quickly the restrictions are eventually lifted.