Global oil inventories recorded a steep decline over March and April as supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict continued to tighten crude availability across international markets, according to new data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest oil market assessment, the IEA said global oil inventories, including crude stored at sea, declined by about 250 million barrels across the two-month period, representing an average drawdown of roughly 4 million barrels per day.
The agency attributed the sharp inventory decline largely to restricted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route responsible for transporting a significant share of the world’s seaborne crude exports.
According to the report, more than 14 million barrels per day of oil supply remained shut in as tanker traffic through the Gulf corridor continued to face disruptions.
The IEA stated that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers have already exceeded 1 billion barrels since the escalation of tensions in the region.
The report further showed that global oil supply declined by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in April, bringing total supply losses since February to 12.8 million barrels per day.
Industry analysts said the continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is increasing pressure on global fuel supply chains, particularly within aviation and petrochemical markets.
The IEA noted that the aviation and petrochemical sectors were among the most affected by the supply shock, while refinery crude processing volumes also declined sharply during the second quarter.
Despite the supply concerns, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous estimate of 1.4 million barrels per day.
OPEC said the adjustment reflected weaker demand expectations across the second, third and fourth quarters of the year, although it maintained that overall oil demand growth remained healthy.
The producers’ group also noted that oil traders reduced some bullish positions during April amid mixed geopolitical signals and expectations of possible de-escalation in the Gulf region.
Nevertheless, OPEC indicated that hedge funds and money managers largely maintained positive sentiment toward crude oil markets during the month.
Brent crude prices, which climbed above $140 per barrel at the peak of market tensions in April, traded around $107 per barrel on Wednesday.
The elevated crude prices have continued to raise concerns about inflationary pressures across major economies due to rising energy costs.
Meanwhile, the IEA said oil producers outside the Middle East increased output in response to the supply disruptions, with production growth from the Americas revised upward by more than 600,000 barrels per day since the beginning of the year.
The agency also noted that Russian crude exports increased following repeated attacks on domestic refinery infrastructure, which reduced local refining activity and redirected more crude volumes toward export markets.
Overall, the IEA projected that global oil demand could decline by 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year during the second quarter, citing weaker economic activity and reduced fuel consumption across several sectors.