The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the global economy has only a matter of weeks to avoid significant economic disruption if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not fully restored, as renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran continue to disrupt one of the world's most important energy corridors.
The warning comes as oil markets, financial institutions and governments increasingly factor in the impact of prolonged supply disruptions following the latest escalation in the Middle East, which has effectively halted commercial tanker movements through the strategic waterway.
Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened "fully" and "unconditionally" within weeks to prevent broader economic consequences.
"It is not months, it is weeks," Birol said, warning that continued restrictions could create fresh challenges for the global economy, particularly for developing countries and major energy-consuming economies across Asia.
The latest disruption followed a renewed exchange of military action between Washington and Tehran. Iran targeted commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including two supertankers operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), while the United States responded with strikes on Iranian targets and reinstated a naval blockade aimed at restricting Iran-linked crude exports.
The renewed hostilities abruptly reversed the gradual recovery in shipping activity that had followed the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has since fallen to its lowest level in five weeks, while efforts by Gulf producers to accelerate crude exports before further escalation have largely stalled.
The renewed uncertainty has also lifted crude prices, with international oil benchmarks rising by about 13 percent since last Friday as traders priced in a higher geopolitical risk premium.
Beyond crude oil, the IEA noted that refined fuel markets are facing greater pressure, with analysts warning that supply tightness for petroleum products could have a more immediate impact on consumers than crude availability itself.
The warning comes as governments and financial markets prepare for the possibility of another round of higher fuel prices and inflation if shipping disruptions persist through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around one-fifth of global crude oil and petroleum product supplies.
Concerns over maritime security have also intensified. Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Arsenio Dominguez, said the security environment in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated to a point where the passage is becoming increasingly unsafe for commercial shipowners and operators.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, serving as the primary export route for crude oil and liquefied natural gas from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. A prolonged disruption could significantly affect global energy supplies, particularly for import-dependent economies in Asia and other developing regions.