Iran has signalled it will not comply with a 48-hour deadline issued by Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions intensify over threats to energy infrastructure and continued military exchanges in the Middle East.
The ultimatum, delivered via social media, warned of potential strikes on Iran’s power facilities if the key shipping route, which carries roughly 20 percent of global oil flows, remains restricted. The waterway has been largely disrupted since late February following coordinated attacks involving the United States and Israel, triggering retaliatory actions from Tehran.
Escalating threats to energy and critical infrastructure
Iranian officials responded with warnings of reciprocal action, indicating that any attack on domestic energy assets would prompt strikes on regional infrastructure linked to U.S. and allied interests. Statements carried by state media outlined potential targets including fuel networks, energy facilities, information technology systems, and water desalination plants across the region.
Officials emphasised the strategic importance of desalination infrastructure, which supplies drinking water to several Gulf countries, signalling the potential for broader regional disruption if hostilities expand.
Iran’s parliament leadership also warned that further escalation could lead to sustained damage to energy assets across the Middle East and prolonged increases in global oil prices.
The developments come as the conflict enters its fourth week, with continued strikes reported on military and nuclear-related facilities in both Iran and Israel. International monitors, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, said no abnormal radiation levels had been detected following recent incidents involving nuclear sites.
Analysts question the effectiveness of the ultimatum
Security and policy analysts said the ultimatum is unlikely to alter Tehran’s position, noting that military options alone may not be sufficient to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or stabilise oil markets.
Experts argue that ongoing hostilities and risks to maritime security could continue to deter shipping activity, as insurers remain reluctant to cover vessels operating in an active conflict zone. This has contributed to rising global oil prices and increased volatility in energy markets.
Despite the tensions, Iranian authorities have indicated that limited vessel movements may still be permitted under specific conditions, although reports suggest some non-aligned ships have also faced disruptions.
The United States has taken steps aimed at easing supply pressures, including adjustments to certain sanctions and shipping regulations to support oil flows. However, broader international involvement in securing the strait has remained limited.
Analysts also suggest that Iran is likely to maintain its current posture, viewing escalation as a means of increasing strategic pressure. They add that the de-escalation would depend on broader diplomatic developments rather than unilateral deadlines.
The situation continues to raise concerns about prolonged disruption to global energy supply chains, with markets expected to adjust through higher prices and constrained shipping routes if tensions persist.