Iran has indicated that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days under a diplomatic proposal awaiting Washington’s response, but fresh threats against alternative oil export routes and continuing attacks on vessels are clouding prospects for a recovery in Gulf crude shipments.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Thursday that Tehran was still reviewing Washington’s response to its proposal and could respond within days. According to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, Araghchi said the diplomatic process remained ongoing.
The proposal raises the prospect of a resumption of maritime traffic through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. However, the seven-day timeline remains conditional on the diplomatic process and should not be interpreted as confirmation that normal shipping operations will resume within that period.
A senior regional official close to Tehran told Reuters that Iran had warned regional countries that attempts to establish alternative routes for oil exports would be considered hostile. A separate regional diplomat said Tehran had no intention of relinquishing control over the strait and had plans to disrupt routes used by Gulf producers to move crude to international markets.
The potential response, according to the diplomat, could include missile and drone attacks on ships or the deployment of boats to deter vessels from using those routes. Such threats could complicate efforts by Gulf exporters to maintain crude shipments while conventional passage through the strait remains constrained.
In recent months, Gulf producers have moved oil through channels closer to the Omani side of the strait before transferring cargoes in open waters in the Gulf of Oman, with US aerial support, according to sources cited by Reuters. Iran’s warning could place additional pressure on these arrangements if it acts against vessels or infrastructure supporting the alternative export routes.
Security concerns have also spread beyond the immediate approaches to the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that projectiles struck a tanker about 51 nautical miles off Qatar’s coast within a 24-hour period. Maritime security sources identified the vessel as the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged chemical tanker Acers, whose crew sustained minor injuries.
Clearwater Dynamics, a subsidiary of maritime risk intelligence group Pole Star Global, warned that the incident raised the possibility of a wider area of maritime conflict affecting approaches to Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
The latest incident follows a week in which tanker attacks around Hormuz reached their highest level since the Iran war began, according to maritime security sources. The attacks have coincided with a sharp reduction in vessel traffic, reflecting growing reluctance among shipowners to expose their vessels and crews to further risks.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, said the recent attacks appeared to have reduced shipowners’ willingness to transit the strait, adding that the Iranian threat had increased.
For the oil market, the central issue is whether diplomatic progress can restore safe, predictable passage for commercial vessels. A reopening announcement alone may not be sufficient to bring shipments back to normal if shipowners continue to face threats, higher insurance costs, security restrictions and uncertainty over alternative export routes.
For Nigeria, sustained disruption could support international crude prices but also increase freight and insurance costs and put upward pressure on imported petroleum product prices. A credible reopening backed by enforceable security arrangements would ease some of these pressures, although the pace of any recovery would depend on the restoration of tanker traffic and renewed confidence among shipowners and energy traders.