The six-month conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has added an estimated $330 billion to the global cost of importing crude oil, refined petroleum products and liquefied natural gas, with import-dependent economies bearing the largest financial impact.
The estimate, covering March through August, comes from Finland-based climate think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which calculated the additional amount paid by energy importers compared with prices analysts had expected before the conflict disrupted regional supplies.
Crude oil accounted for the largest portion of the increase at $164.1 billion, followed by diesel and gasoil at $73.8 billion. Gasoline added another $35.7 billion to the additional import bill, while liquefied natural gas contributed $38 billion and jet fuel about $20 billion.
The combined figures indicate that the disruption to Middle Eastern energy flows has generated substantial additional costs even though oil and gas prices have not risen as sharply as some early forecasts suggested.
Europe recorded the largest regional increase, with the European Union's energy import bill estimated to be $78 billion higher than anticipated during the six-month period. China followed with an additional $35 billion, while India incurred an estimated $22 billion in extra energy import costs.
The scale of the European impact reflects the bloc's reliance on imported hydrocarbons, particularly crude oil and LNG. Restrictions on Russian energy supplies have increased the importance of alternative sources, including the United States, while Norway remains the European Union's largest regional supplier but has limits on how much additional energy it can provide.
China's position is significant because it is the world's largest importer of crude oil and LNG. However, its response to the sharp rise in energy prices helped limit the extent of the disruption to global markets.
Chinese oil purchases fell after the conflict began, while the country drew on substantial stockpiles. Those reserves were estimated at between 1 billion and 1.4 billion barrels at the start of the year, according to the report's cited estimates.
India experienced the third-largest financial impact among the major importers examined by CREA, paying an estimated $22 billion more for energy during the period.
The country's exposure is particularly pronounced in crude oil, given its heavy dependence on imports and historical reliance on supplies from the Middle East. The disruption to oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz therefore directly affected one of India's major sources of imported energy.
The impact was not limited to the three largest markets. Other Asian economies also faced higher bills as crude, refined products and LNG became more expensive. CREA's calculations reflect the quantities of energy commodities that countries actually purchased during the period, rather than estimating how much they might have imported under conditions without the conflict.
That distinction is important because higher prices have also reduced demand for some petroleum products. The additional import cost therefore reflects both the higher prices paid and the actual volumes purchased during the disruption.
The pressure has extended beyond crude oil into global gas markets. Asian LNG prices averaged about 75% above the levels analysts had expected before the conflict, while European LNG prices were approximately 60% higher than pre-war expectations over the six months through August.
The elevated gas prices could persist as importers prepare for the winter demand season. European buyers face the prospect of shortages if additional supplies are not secured, while Asian markets are also expected to increase purchases ahead of colder weather.
The effects on refined petroleum products could prove more persistent because the conflict has also damaged refining infrastructure and constrained available processing capacity.
The International Energy Agency estimated earlier this year that hostilities had taken about one-fifth of Middle Eastern refining capacity offline, equivalent to approximately 9.6 million barrels per day. Damage to Russian refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks has added further pressure to global refining availability.
The combined loss of refining capacity has tightened supplies of fuels, including diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. This means the increase in energy costs may continue even after hostilities eventually subside, particularly if damaged refineries require extended periods to return to normal operations.
The disruption has therefore affected importers through several channels: higher crude prices, increased fuel costs, elevated LNG prices and reduced refining availability.
CREA's assessment also identifies a partial offset from lower-carbon energy sources. Wind, solar and other low-carbon technologies are estimated to have saved energy importers about $36 billion between March and August by reducing their dependence on imported fossil fuels.
That saving remains considerably smaller than the estimated additional $330 billion energy import burden created by the conflict, but it highlights the role of alternative energy sources in reducing exposure to international fossil-fuel price shocks.
With the conflict still unresolved, the final cost to energy-importing economies could rise further if supply restrictions, elevated LNG prices and reduced refining capacity persist into the coming months.