Europe may increasingly source jet fuel from Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals as supply disruptions linked to the Middle East continue to tighten global availability, according to a report by Kpler.
The report indicates that constraints affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have removed nearly 21 percent of seaborne jet fuel supply from the market, reducing volumes available to Europe. Imports into the region could decline by close to 300,000 barrels per day, including about 247,000 barrels per day typically supplied to North West Europe.
Kpler noted that the loss of Middle Eastern cargoes has left European buyers with limited alternatives. Supplies from Asia, which often act as a secondary source, are being redirected to meet stronger regional demand, supported by higher pricing and export restrictions in countries such as China and South Korea.
Cargoes from India, particularly from the Jamnagar refinery, would typically help offset supply gaps. However, concerns related to European Union restrictions on fuels linked to Russian crude have reduced demand for such shipments.
With eastern supply constrained, attention is shifting toward the Atlantic Basin, including the United States Gulf Coast and West Africa. Kpler data shows that the Dangote refinery exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in 2025, positioning it among potential alternative suppliers to the European market.
The report added that West Africa has become structurally long on refined products, largely due to output from the Dangote refinery, suggesting that export volumes could remain available even with domestic supply priorities.
Kpler also stated that additional shipments from the United States Gulf Coast are expected, although these flows may not fully replace the shortfall. Exports from the region are influenced by demand from Latin America, product specification differences, and infrastructure constraints, despite favourable arbitrage conditions.
Monthly exports from the United States Gulf Coast rarely exceed one million tonnes, although volumes reached a record of about 307,000 barrels per day in January.
The report further highlighted logistical constraints within Europe, noting that refinery configurations, existing diesel production commitments, and infrastructure limitations could restrict the region’s ability to increase jet fuel output.
While sustainable aviation fuel is gradually expanding in Europe under regulatory frameworks, it continues to account for a small share of total supply and is unlikely to significantly offset current shortages.
Kpler concluded that even with increased flows from the United States and West Africa, including supplies from the Dangote refinery, Europe is unlikely to fully replace lost Middle Eastern volumes in the near term. Market adjustments are expected to occur through higher prices and extended trade routes as supply and demand rebalance.