Nigeria’s oil sector is facing a troubling contradiction: despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer, the country spent a massive ₦5.734tn importing crude oil in 2025 to keep its refineries running. The development raises fresh concerns about the effectiveness of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy and the persistent disconnect between production and domestic supply.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, analysed by The PUNCH, shows a sharp turnaround from 2024 when no crude imports were recorded, marking a 100 per cent year-on-year increase. This is despite Nigeria producing over 530 million barrels of crude and earning about ₦55.5tn from oil sales within the same period.
Quarterly analysis reveals that imports surged as supply gaps widened. Refineries imported crude worth ₦1.19tn in Q1, rising to ₦1.64tn in Q2, and peaking at ₦2.403tn in Q3 amid worsening feedstock shortages. Although imports dropped to ₦499.75bn in Q4, the overall pattern reflects a highly unstable supply environment.
Monthly figures further underline the volatility. Imports rose from ₦335.69bn in January to a peak of ₦1.28tn in July, before falling sharply to ₦92.67bn in November and eventually dropping to zero in December, suggesting a temporary easing in supply pressures towards year-end.
Industry stakeholders say local refineries—both modular plants and large-scale facilities like Dangote have increasingly turned to foreign markets due to limited domestic crude allocation. The Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria confirmed that some operators received little or no supply under the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation, forcing many to operate below capacity or shut down intermittently.
Dangote refinery itself disclosed that it receives only five cargoes of crude monthly under the naira-for-crude arrangement, far below the 13 cargoes required for full operations. The shortfall is sourced internationally, often at global market prices, which weakens the intended benefits of the policy.
Energy analysts say the situation is driven by structural challenges, including export-focused priorities of international oil companies, pricing disputes, and foreign exchange considerations. According to Petroleumprice.ng CEO Jeremiah Olatide, most refineries still depend heavily on imported crude, limiting any real impact on fuel pricing despite improved product availability.
Experts warn that the trend may persist into 2026, as issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and limited upstream investment continue to constrain supply. Until Nigeria aligns its crude production with domestic refining needs, the country’s push for energy independence will remain under pressure.