Retail prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), popularly known as cooking gas, could climb toward ₦2,000 per kilogram in parts of Nigeria as mounting supply shortages continue to squeeze the domestic market despite official claims of adequate product sufficiency, industry operators have told Petroleumprice.ng.
This comes as the latest April 2026 factsheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that Nigeria currently maintains only 13 days of LPG sufficiency nationwide, one of the lowest stock coverage levels among major petroleum products.
The regulator’s data also revealed a widening imbalance in the LPG market, with average daily consumption reaching 4,818 metric tonnes per day compared to average daily supply of 4,545 metric tonnes per day in April.
Industry marketers say the deficit is already beginning to reflect across depots and retail outlets, particularly in Lagos, where available volumes have tightened considerably in recent days.
Multiple market sources told Petroleumprice.ng that limited product availability at major supply points has triggered aggressive upward price movements among retailers, with many already selling above ₦1,500 per kilogram.
Operators attributed the rising prices to thin depot stock, reduced loading activity, and limited ticket availability from Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has become one of the dominant suppliers in the domestic LPG market.
According to depot sources, Navgas Limited remains the only LPG seller currently supplying the Lagos market, with ex-depot prices hovering around ₦1,200 per kilogram.
However, marketers warned that retail prices could rise significantly higher if supply conditions fail to improve in the coming weeks.
“The market is already under pressure because supply is not matching demand. Retailers are crossing ₦1,500/kg already in some locations, and if the current trend continues, ₦2,000/kg is possible,” a marketer familiar with LPG distribution in Lagos said.
Another operator noted that the 13-day sufficiency level cited by the NMDPRA may not fully reflect actual depot-level availability currently being experienced by marketers across the supply chain.
“What is on paper and what marketers are seeing physically are not exactly the same. Product availability is still very tight at loading points,” the source added.
The NMDPRA report showed that LPG remains the petroleum product with the lowest national stock sufficiency after petrol, with available stock expected to last only 13 days based on prevailing consumption patterns.
The regulator also disclosed that LPG consumption continues to outpace supply despite increased domestic contributions from gas processing plants and local refining operations.
Retail prices tracked by the NMDPRA for April ranged between ₦1,100 and ₦1,450 per kilogram nationwide, although marketers say prevailing spot prices in some locations are now moving above those levels due to supply constraints.
The latest market tension comes despite growing domestic refining activity and increased local petroleum production across the downstream sector.
Analysts say sustained pressure on LPG supply could undermine Nigeria’s ongoing push toward cleaner household cooking energy adoption, particularly as millions of consumers continue shifting away from kerosene and firewood to cooking gas.
They further warned that unless supply volumes improve significantly through increased local production, imports, or more aggressive distribution into retail channels, the market may continue to experience elevated price volatility in the months ahead.