A fresh rift is brewing in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector as Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and president of the Dangote Group, intensifies pressure on President Bola Tinubu’s administration to ban fuel imports under the Federal Government’s ‘Nigeria First’ procurement policy a move fiercely opposed by major oil marketers and energy experts who warn of monopolistic threats and market instability.
Dangote Calls for Import Ban to Protect Local Refining
Speaking at the Global Commodity Insights Conference on West African Refined Fuel Markets, jointly hosted by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and S&P Global, Dangote argued that continued importation of petrol and diesel undermines local refining capacity and deters further investment in Nigeria’s downstream sector.
He urged Tinubu to include refined petroleum products on the list of banned imports, aligning with the administration’s existing directive to patronise local goods and services. “The Nigeria First policy announced by His Excellency, President Bola Tinubu, should apply to the petroleum product sector and all other sectors,” Dangote said.
Dangote said local refiners, including his $20bn integrated complex in Lekki, face squeezed margins as dumped fuels—many heavily subsidised or poor in quality—flood the market. He alleged that some of these products are smuggled in at prices below production cost.
Dangote added that, “in Nigeria, unfair competition has forced petrol prices down to about 60 cents per litre cheaper than in Saudi Arabia due to the influx of discounted Russian fuels and toxic products banned in Europe”.
Marketers, Stakeholders Push Back
However, Dangote’s request met strong resistance from stakeholders across the downstream petroleum value chain. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), and academic experts have warned that such a ban would foster monopoly and reduce market competitiveness.
Chinedu Ukadike, IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, warned, “If government bans imports now, it will hand complete control of the market to a single refinery. That is a recipe for inflation, price manipulation, and a distorted supply chain.”
Ukadike insisted that continued fuel importation remains vital for price regulation and supply stability, especially as Dangote Refinery is still scaling up to full capacity.
Billy Gillis-Harry, PETROAN’s National President, added, “We are in a free-market economy. Fuel importation is necessary to ensure multiple supply sources and energy security. Banning imports at this stage is premature.”
He argued that, unlike products like garri or toothpicks which are easily substitutable, refined petroleum products still require a diversified sourcing model.
Legal and Economic Concerns
Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, warned that enforcing a fuel import ban could run afoul of international trade obligations and threaten national energy security.
“Granting importation rights to just one company contradicts free-market principles and risks creating a private-sector monopoly. It’s economically unsound and legally questionable under global trade frameworks,” he said.
He stressed that until Nigeria achieves diversified refining capacity, such restrictions would be anti-competitive and unsustainable.
Nigeria Now a Net Exporter?
Dangote attempted to underscore the refinery’s readiness by revealing that the facility exported approximately 1.35 billion litres of petrol between June and July 2025 suggesting Nigeria has transitioned into a net exporter of refined products.
“From June to date, we have exported about 1 million tonnes of PMS. That proves we can meet local needs and drive exports,” he stated.
Call for Regulatory Reforms
While marketers opposed the ban proposal, they agreed with Dangote’s call for the NMDPRA to revoke dormant refinery licences.
“You can’t obtain a licence and not build a refinery. We support measures that ensure only serious investors participate in the refining space,” Ukadike added.
Dangote Refocuses on Refinery Operations
This latest development follows Dangote’s announcement of his retirement as Chairman of Dangote Cement’s Board to concentrate fully on the refinery, fertiliser, and petrochemicals businesses. The refinery is reportedly on track to scale production from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 700,000 bpd by December.
Additionally, Dangote’s logistics fleet of 4,000 compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered trucks is set to begin fuel deliveries directly to filling stations and bulk buyers nationwide from August 1.
Outlook
Industry observers say Nigeria’s fuel market stands at a crossroads. While Dangote’s refinery is a national asset with the capacity to meet domestic needs, calls for restrictive policies must be weighed against economic openness, legal obligations, and market competitiveness.
The Federal Government has yet to formally respond to Dangote’s proposal.