Petroleum marketers are holding off bulk petrol purchases from Dangote Refinery and private depots amid strong market signals that ex-depot prices may fall further this week.
Despite marketers quoting ₦820.5 per litre for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) on Tuesday, the refinery experienced noticeably low traffic from marketers, as traders stayed cautious and waited for what many believe will be a strategic price reduction in the coming days.
“Trading was thin. Marketers came, saw the price, and left. They’re waiting,” a Refinery insider told Petroleumprice.ng on Tuesday.
Competitive Depots Undercut Dangote
Fresh pricing data from the Daily Oil and Gas Market Intelligence Report (22 July 2025) shows that several Lagos depots offered PMS below or equal to Dangote’s rate:
| Depot Name | Location | PMS Price (₦/litre) |
|---|---|---|
| MENJ | Lagos | ₦817.00 |
| AITEO | Lagos | ₦817.00 |
| NIPCO | Lagos | ₦818.00 |
| WOSBAB | Lagos | ₦818.00 |
| SAHARA | Lagos | ₦820.00 |
| AIPEC | Lagos | ₦820.00 |
| DANGOTE | Lagos | ₦820.50 |
This pricing spread though marginal has psychologically tilted the market in favour of depots offering the lowest possible entry points, especially for independent marketers with tight margins and high operational overheads.
Scant Activity at Dangote Jetty
Despite boasting the largest refining capacity in Africa, Dangote Refinery on Tuesday. Marketers, already grappling with thin retail margins and uncertain daily landing costs, are now increasingly price sensitive, treating each Naira differential as make-or-break.
Some traders say they would rather delay lifting products than buy at today’s rate and risk undercutting by competitors tomorrow. Many anticipated earlier in the week a price cut by Dangote, particularly as inland supply balances out and product volumes rise across the South-West and South-South.
Downstream Market in Transition
The current slowdown is not isolated it reflects a broader structural shift in Nigeria’s downstream oil market. With deregulation now in full swing, the traditional “lift-and-distribute” model is giving way to data-driven trading behaviours, where marketers benchmark depot offers across zones before committing.
Volume purchases now depend not just on product availability but on timing, pricing, and real-time retail recovery potential.
“No one wants to stock ₦820/litre fuel only to see it drop to ₦800 the next day. That’s how fast margins evaporate,” a marketer told Petroleumprice.ng.
Price Correction Likely
Industry watchers predict that if product uptake at Dangote and other Lagos depots remains low, refineries and traders may be forced to adjust prices downward before the weekend to stimulate demand and prevent product overhang.
The market is also tracking incoming cargoes and depot storage levels, which could add pressure to maintain competitive ex-depot pricing and protect throughput levels.
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