Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler reported by Reuters on Monday.
Kpler's data showed that crude exports from the region were above pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, at between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks said in a report on Saturday that at least seven incidents involving tankers had been reported in and around the strait. It said the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile on October 1 while operating in the strait, causing a fire on board the tanker. All crew members were reported safe and were evacuated from the vessel, Marisks said.
Kpler data showed that Kazimah III was last seen discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port on the coast of Oman on September 17. The vessel's owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not immediately respond to a reqnxuest for comment outside office hours.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks said merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" following the recent increase in traffic. It said the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels. The firm said available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or kill box, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto radar signatures within it. Physical presence in the engagement zone at the relevant time could itself be the main exposure, Marisks added.
Kpler's seven-day moving average for crude exports was 18.5 million bpd on October 1. The measure includes transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The combined figure for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30.
The data also showed that the number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the strait in September was the highest for any month since February. The figures exclude any vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection.
Before the war began on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container vessels. Those vessels accounted for some 20 per cent of the world's daily crude oil and LNG supply.