January 2026 data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority indicate that modular refineries account for a small share of Nigeria’s total fuel supply, despite ongoing policy support and incremental capacity additions.
The regulator’s latest factsheet shows that while domestic refining output has improved overall, modular facilities contribute only a limited portion of national diesel production and have no significant impact on petrol supply volumes.
National Demand Exceeds Benchmarks
Consumption in January 2026 surpassed official demand benchmarks across major fuel categories:
- Petrol (PMS): 60.2 million litres per day compared with a 50 million litres per day benchmark
- Diesel (AGO): 19.2 ML per day versus 14 ML per day benchmark
- Aviation fuel (ATK): 3.5 ML per day versus 3 ML per day benchmark
- LPG: 4,860 metric tonnes per day versus 3,900 MT per day benchmark
At the same time, the actual average PMS domestic supply stood at 40.1 million litres per day, below the planned 75 ML per day. The difference reflects a supply gap of approximately 35 million litres daily relative to planned output levels.
Modular Refinery Output Remains Limited
Five modular refineries were listed in the January dataset:
- Three operational
- Two shut down
Combined average diesel output from the operational plants reached 0.296 million litres per day.
Individual plant performance recorded:
- 0.124 ML per day at 61.66 percent utilisation
- 0.055 ML per day at 63.23 percent utilisation
- 0.118 ML per day at 29.09 percent utilisation
With national AGO consumption at 19.2 ML per day, modular refineries supplied roughly 1.5 percent of total daily diesel demand.
Broader Refining Performance
System-wide average refining capacity utilisation stood at 61.27 percent, with a peak of 67.69 percent during the period.
Waltersmith Refinery’s second processing train, designed for 5,000 barrels per stream day, completed pre-commissioning and is undergoing commissioning ahead of hydrocarbon introduction. The facility is expected to add incremental output once fully operational.
However, larger refining complexes continue to account for the bulk of domestic supply growth.
Fuel Stocks and Market Stability
National stock cover levels were recorded as follows:
- PMS: 33 days
- AGO: 34 days
- ATK: 20 days
- LPG: 18 days
The factsheet notes that marine stock levels declined due to reduced imports, although overall sufficiency improved compared with the previous month.
Imports by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, acting as supplier of last resort, continue to supplement domestic production where required.
Regional Price Variations
Indicative November pump prices showed regional variation:
| City | Average Price (₦ per litre) |
|---|---|
| Lagos | 910 |
| Abuja | 945.5 |
| Kano | 975 |
| Maiduguri | 982.5 |
| Ibadan | 923.5 |
Price differences are largely driven by logistics and transportation costs.
Gas Sector Performance
Total wholesale gas supply in January 2026 reached 4.837 billion standard cubic feet per day.
Utilisation rates across processing plants varied significantly, ranging from approximately 15 percent to nearly full capacity at some facilities. A substantial portion of gas supply flowed to Nigeria LNG for export, while domestic allocations supported power generation, commercial users, and gas-based industries.
Infrastructure Development
Major pipeline projects remain under construction, with completion rates ranging from around 10 percent to nearly 100 percent. The overall average completion rate across key projects stands at 69.67 percent.
Incomplete infrastructure continues to affect distribution efficiency in parts of the country.
Overall Position of Modular Refineries
Based on January 2026 data, modular refineries contribute a small fraction of national fuel output. Their combined diesel production represents a limited share of total consumption, while petrol supply remains dominated by larger refining operations and imports.
The data indicate that modular facilities currently function as supplementary sources within Nigeria’s broader refining system rather than primary supply drivers.