MTN Nigeria has warned that diesel prices averaging ₦2,000 per litre in the second half of 2026 could reduce its full-year EBITDA margins by 1.8 to 2.0 percentage points, highlighting the telecommunications sector's heavy dependence on diesel-powered infrastructure.
The caution contained in the company's unaudited first quarter results released on Wednesday, comes as Nigeria's downstream fuel market remains under pressure. The Dangote Refinery recently increased its diesel price to ₦1,800 while prices at independent stations have climbed to around ₦2,200 per litre in some states.
"Based on an assumed average Lagos ex-depot diesel price of ₦2,000 in H2, we estimate a 1.8 to 2.0 percentage point impact on full-year EBITDA margin," Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola said.
MTN operates more than 20,000 base stations nationwide, most of which run on diesel generators due to persistent grid instability. According to the Africa Finance Corporation's State of Africa's Infrastructure Report 2025, as cited in the company's results, Nigerian telecom operators collectively consume over 40 million litres of diesel monthly, more than 480 million litres annually, with sector-wide spending estimated at over $350 million per year.
Elevated geopolitical tensions towards the end of the quarter drove higher energy prices globally, Toriola said, adding renewed inflationary pressure across energy-linked sectors.
This underscores the impact of rising diesel costs on operations, as energy remains a significant component of operating expenses across the telecoms sector.