Nigeria generated an estimated ₦20.22 trillion from crude oil exports between January and May 2026, as stronger international oil prices outweighed a decline in export volumes, lifting the value of the country's overseas crude sales despite continued concerns over domestic production and refinery feedstock availability.
According to an analysis by The PUNCH using crude oil production and export figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country exported about 148.9 million barrels of crude during the five-month period. The shipments were valued at approximately $14.66 billion, equivalent to ₦20.22 trillion at the official exchange rate of ₦1,380 to the US dollar.
Although export volumes declined compared to the corresponding period of 2025, higher international crude prices significantly boosted export earnings during the review period.
The analysis also showed that Nigeria produced about 216.85 million barrels of crude oil between January and May, with the country's total output carrying an estimated gross market value of $21.28 billion, or approximately ₦29.36 trillion.
Of the total crude produced, roughly 68.7 per cent was exported, leaving about 67.95 million barrels available for domestic refining, operational use, storage and inventory adjustments.
Production volumes stood at 45.26 million barrels in January, 36.68 million barrels in February, 42.78 million barrelsin March, 44.70 million barrels in April and 47.43 million barrels in May.
Crude exports during the same period amounted to 31.31 million barrels in January, 24.08 million barrels in February, 28.83 million barrels in March, 31.20 million barrels in April and 33.48 million barrels in May.
Using the corresponding average monthly Bonny Light crude prices, export earnings were estimated at $2.13 billion in January, $1.74 billion in February, $3.06 billion in March, $3.95 billion in April and $3.77 billion in May.
The estimated value of crude production reached $3.08 billion in January, $2.65 billion in February, $4.54 billion in March, $5.67 billion in April and $5.34 billion in May.
The data further showed that average daily crude production recovered steadily after a weaker February performance, rising from 1.46 million barrels per day in January to 1.53 million barrels per day in May after dropping to 1.31 million barrels per day in February.
Average daily exports also improved over the period, increasing from 1.01 million barrels per day in January to 1.08 million barrels per day in May, despite falling to 0.86 million barrels per day in February.
Compared with the same period last year, Nigeria exported fewer barrels but generated substantially higher revenue.
Between January and May 2025, the country exported approximately 154 million barrels valued at $11.32 billion. This means export volumes fell by about 5.1 million barrels, representing a 3.3 per cent year-on-year decline.
However, export earnings climbed by approximately $3.34 billion, or 29.5 per cent, largely because of higher crude prices in the international market.
At the official exchange rate, the estimated value of crude exports increased from roughly ₦15.62 trillion during the first five months of 2025 to about ₦20.22 trillion over the same period this year.
The rise in crude prices coincided with heightened geopolitical tensions following the conflict involving the United States and Iran, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit routes.
Average Bonny Light crude prices rose from $68.05 per barrel in January and $72.33 per barrel in February to $106.09in March, $126.71 in April and $112.63 in May.
While stronger prices supported export earnings, concerns over domestic crude availability have persisted.
Figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that crude supplied to domestic refineries declined to 15.84 million barrels in May, even though the facilities recorded a combined intake of 17.92 million barrels during the month.
The situation has continued to fuel concerns among local refiners over the implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) under the Petroleum Industry Act.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has repeatedly argued that inadequate domestic crude supply has affected its operations, maintaining that reliable feedstock from the local market is critical to sustaining refinery output. The Federal Government has rejected allegations that it deliberately frustrated crude supplies to domestic refiners.
Speaking on the issue, the Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Eche Idoko, said most modular refineries currently source crude directly from private oil producers rather than through government allocation.
According to him, refineries including Edo Refinery obtain feedstock through commercial agreements with independent producers. He urged the Federal Government to strengthen implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation to ensure more crude is made available to local refining facilities.
The estimated export values represent the gross market value of Nigeria's crude oil based on prevailing international prices and do not reflect actual government earnings, which are influenced by royalties, taxes, production-sharing contracts, operational costs, domestic crude supply commitments and other commercial arrangements.