Nigeria’s daily crude oil production climbed above its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota for the second time in 2025, signaling renewed momentum in upstream activities. According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), crude production averaged 1.505 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, 100.4% of Nigeria’s allocated OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
When combined with condensate output of 191,572 bpd, the country’s total daily liquids production hit 1.697 million bpd, with peak production reaching 1.82 million bpd during the month. This marks a steady improvement from May’s 1.65 million bpd and March’s 1.60 million bpd output, according to official figures.
Production Gains Driven by Pipeline Security
The rise in output was largely driven by improved crude pipeline availability, which hit 100% in June a rare feat for Nigeria’s troubled midstream infrastructure. The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bashir Bayo Ojulari, attributed the improvement to coordinated security efforts led by NNPCL and the reactivation of previously inaccessible pipelines.
“For the first time in years, we recorded 100% availability on major crude transport lines across the country in June. That’s a direct result of our strategic surveillance partnerships,” Ojulari said at a recent industry briefing.
Nigeria Eyes 1.9m bpd by December
NNPCL now aims to ramp up output to 1.9 million bpd by December 2025, aligning with its medium-term target of 2.06 million bpd by 2027. Ojulari disclosed that production has already risen from 1.56 million bpd in March to the current 1.63 million bpd, including condensates.
He added that ongoing investments, consistent cash call remittances to Joint Venture (JV) operations, and upstream asset optimisation are already yielding visible results.
Budget Targets Still Out of Reach
Despite the encouraging figures, Nigeria still falls short of its 2025 national budget benchmark of 2.06 million bpd. Analysts warn that while exceeding OPEC quota suggests positive recovery, the shortfall against the national budget target reflects underlying production bottlenecks including aging infrastructure, underinvestment, and regulatory uncertainties.
“This is progress, but we need more upstream investment to meet fiscal targets,” said a Lagos-based energy economist. “Meeting the OPEC quota is good optics, but fiscal performance depends on hitting budget projections.”
Outlook: Growth Likely but Fragile
Energy analysts predict further gains in Q3 and Q4, provided pipeline security holds and supply remains undisrupted. NUPRC officials have urged producers to maintain production discipline while fast-tracking brownfield reactivations and greenfield developments.
With global oil prices hovering near $69 per barrel and Nigeria’s production gradually rebounding, the country may finally be positioning itself to capitalise on both favourable market conditions and domestic reform momentum.
However, the road to sustainable output growth remains fragile, and stakeholders agree that structural investments, regulatory stability, and energy security must be central to Nigeria’s upstream strategy going forward.