Nigeria may encounter a significant gas supply shortfall by 2030, with a projected gap of 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The warning was delivered by Gbenga Komolafe, CEO of NUPRC, during the Association of Energy Correspondents of Nigeria (NAEC) conference on Thursday.
Komolafe noted that while gas demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.6% between 2020 and 2030, the country risks facing a critical supply crisis under the ‘Base Case Demand and Supply’ scenario. “By 2030, Nigeria could face an impending gas supply crisis with a potential shortfall of 3.1 bcf/day,” he said.
Although Nigeria’s natural gas production is forecasted to rise from 8.0 bcf/d in 2020 to 12.2 bcf/d by 2030, the supply increase may not keep pace with growing demand. This uptick in production will be driven by large-scale projects such as the Nigeria LNG Train 7 and Train 8, the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline, and the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) natural gas pipeline, Komolafe added.
However, even in the ‘High Case Supply’ scenario, Nigeria’s gas production may fall short of the anticipated ‘High Case Demand’, which is projected to reach 22.2 bcf/d by 2030.
“The demand landscape could change exponentially within a decade, especially if challenges in the power sector are resolved,” Komolafe explained. He emphasised that the growing demand presents a substantial opportunity for gas development in Nigeria’s upstream sector and a need to complement traditional hydrocarbon activities with renewable energy solutions.
As the regulator for the upstream petroleum sector, NUPRC is focusing on attracting investment in cleaner hydrocarbon developments, in alignment with the Federal Government’s ‘Decade of Gas’ initiative. Komolafe highlighted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) provides the necessary framework for the interventions required to achieve these goals.
In this context, NUPRC is advancing programmes such as the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) to eliminate gas flaring, reduce carbon emissions, and promote gas monetisation. “These initiatives aim to foster energy sufficiency, minimise wastages, and address the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions,” he said.
Komolafe further explained that these investments will ensure more gas is available for domestic use, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), power generation, fertiliser production, and petrochemical feedstock. Each of these sectors offers unique opportunities for investors, he added, stressing the critical importance of this sector for Nigeria’s future energy security.