Nigeria’s crude oil industry made visible progress in 2025, but not enough to meet official expectations. Despite stronger drilling activity, rising rig counts and renewed investor interest, the country still missed its annual oil production target by about 500,000 barrels per day, highlighting the gap between policy ambition and on-ground execution.
Data from regulators and OPEC sources show a sector in recovery mode but one still grappling with legacy constraints, infrastructure limits and timing delays.
Output improves but misses government benchmark
Nigeria recorded an average crude oil production of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, falling short of the government’s target by half a million barrels daily, according to industry data cited by Vanguard.
Figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed 40 active drilling rigs in the country by year-end, while OPEC placed Nigeria’s rig count at 18 rigs in November. Production in that month rose to around 1.6 million bpd, supported by improved security conditions and operational recovery in key producing assets.
While the numbers marked a clear improvement from earlier years, they were still below the production levels required to significantly lift fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows.
Tinubu reforms lift rigs, drilling momentum
Industry operators attribute the rebound largely to upstream reforms under President Bola Tinubu, which unlocked cash flow into the sector and restored investor confidence. Throughout 2025, Nigeria drilled more wells and pumped more crude than it had in years.
Daily output reportedly climbed to between 1.7 million and 1.83 million bpd at peak periods, while active rigs rose sharply from 31 in January to about 50 by July 2025. These gains signalled a structural shift after years of underinvestment, oil theft and regulatory uncertainty.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has set aggressive medium-term goals. Its Executive Vice President for Upstream, Udy Ntia, said Nigeria aims to reach 2 million bpd within two years, with a longer-term target of 3 million bpd by 2030.
Licensing rounds and Big Oil fuel optimism
To sustain momentum, the Federal Government launched a licensing round for 50 oil and gas blocks at the end of 2025, a move officials say could attract up to $10 billion in investments over the next decade and add around 400,000 bpd to national production capacity.
Global oil majors are also returning after years of scaling back. Shell is expected to begin production at the Bonga North deepwater field next year, while TotalEnergies plans to start gas output from the Ubeta field in 2027.
For Nigeria, missing the 2025 production target underscores a familiar reality: reforms are working, but results take time. As rigs return, investments flow and projects mature, the real test will be whether the country can convert renewed optimism into sustained barrels—and finally close the gap between promise and performance.