Nigeria’s crude oil production remained below its quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in March 2026, extending a streak of underperformance that has now lasted eight months.
Data from OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1.38 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March. Although this reflects an increase of 69,000 barrels per day compared to February’s 1.31 mbpd, output still lagged the country’s 1.5 mbpd allocation by roughly 117,000 bpd.
The March improvement followed a sharp dip in February, when production dropped by about 146,000 bpd from January levels. While January had offered a brief recovery, rising to 1.459 mbpd from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025, the gains proved temporary as output weakened again the following month.
This pattern continues a broader trend observed throughout 2025, when Nigeria struggled to consistently meet its OPEC quota. The country only met or slightly exceeded its target in January, June, and July, despite opening the year above its allocation at 1.54 mbpd. Production fell below the threshold as early as February and recorded one of its widest gaps in March at 1.40 mbpd. Modest rebounds in April and May were insufficient to close the deficit until June, when output marginally surpassed the quota at 1.51 mbpd, a level sustained into July before declining again.
Earlier figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission also pointed to a softening in output toward the end of 2025, with production slipping from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December before the slight rebound in January.
Performance in the first quarter of 2026 remains below the Federal Government’s budget assumptions, raising concerns over revenue projections and fiscal stability.
However, the upstream regulator recently indicated that total oil production, including condensates, climbed to about 1.8 mbpd in March. According to officials, the improvement was driven by the resumption of facilities that had been undergoing maintenance, with expectations that output could reach the OPEC quota in April.
Persistent shortfalls have implications beyond export earnings. Limited crude supply has also constrained domestic refining operations, forcing adjustments in sourcing strategies. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has begun leveraging international trading partners to secure crude feedstock for local refineries, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, in a bid to sustain processing capacity.
Across the wider OPEC group, production trends in March showed mixed movements. Major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq recorded significant output cuts, while countries including Venezuela, Congo, and Libya posted moderate increases. Data gaps and reporting variations meant that a consolidated total for the group was not fully available for the month.
Nigeria’s continued inability to meet its quota underscores ongoing operational and structural challenges in the upstream sector, even as authorities express optimism about a near-term recovery.