Nigeria lost an estimated N1.76 trillion in potential crude oil revenue between January 2025 and January 2026 after repeatedly missing its production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission show that the country fell below its 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) quota in nine months of 2025 and again in January 2026. This occurred despite global oil prices remaining relatively stable for much of the period.
Production Performance and Monthly Deficits
Nigeria exceeded its quota in January 2025, producing 1.54 mbpd—about 40,000 barrels per day above target. Output also rose slightly above the quota in June and July.
However, production dropped below the benchmark in February, March, April, May, August, September, October, November, and December. The shortfall ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, which marked the weakest output of the year at 1.39 mbpd.
Over those nine months, Nigeria recorded a gross deficit of about 18.7 million barrels. After adjusting for surplus volumes in January, June, and July, the net shortfall for 2025 stood at roughly 16.85 million barrels.
In January 2026, output averaged 1.459 mbpd, leaving a daily gap of about 41,000 barrels. As a result, the country recorded an additional shortfall of approximately 1.27 million barrels for the month. Altogether, the cumulative deficit between January 2025 and January 2026 reached about 18.12 million barrels.
Revenue Impact
Price data from the Central Bank of Nigeria show that Bonny Light crude averaged $72.08 per barrel over the 10-month review period.
When multiplied by the 18.12 million barrels shortfall, the gap translates to an estimated $1.31 billion in unrealised revenue. At an exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this equals roughly N1.76 trillion.
This revenue gap emerged despite Nigeria producing about 530.41 million barrels in 2025, which generated gross earnings estimated at N55.5 trillion at the same average price and exchange rate.
However, analysts note that gross revenue figures do not account for production costs, joint venture obligations, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, domestic supply commitments, or oil theft.
Structural Constraints Persist
Industry analysts link the production shortfall to operational disruptions, aging infrastructure, security challenges in the Niger Delta, and inconsistent field performance.
According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 mbpd in January 2026, up from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025. Nevertheless, output remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month of non-compliance from August 2025 to January 2026.
2026 Budget and Output Targets
The Federal Government adopted a more conservative oil benchmark for 2026. The budget projects average crude and condensate production of 1.84 mbpd, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
Even so, January’s performance suggests a cautious start toward meeting those projections.
The Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to strengthen upstream performance. She outlined a strategy focused on production optimisation, regulatory efficiency, and safe, sustainable operations. The plan supports the administration’s target to raise crude output to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.
Expert Perspectives
Energy economist Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare said Nigeria’s main challenge lies in production capacity rather than oil prices. He argued that the government must improve asset security, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable investment climate that enables operators to maximise output.
He also urged closer collaboration with the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to reopen shut-in wells, especially in onshore and shallow-water fields, to boost near-term production.
Similarly, economist Segun Ajibola noted that crude oil output depends on several factors, including technical partnerships, global market trends, and environmental conditions. He added that institutional and governance issues within the sector have also influenced performance.
Overall, the repeated shortfall against OPEC’s quota highlights ongoing structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, even as policymakers pursue higher production targets in the medium term.