Nigeria emerged as Sub-Saharan Africa’s leading upstream oil and gas investment destination in 2025, attracting $5.3 billion in capital despite an 18 percent decline in upstream spending across the region.
Industry intelligence firm Wood Mackenzie said Nigeria retained the top position for upstream capital inflows even as investment activity weakened across Africa.
Only two Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) were recorded across Sub-Saharan Africa during the year, with Nigeria securing one of them. The approved project is the Shell–Sunlink HI Field (OML 144), a shallow-water non-associated gas development.
The investment decision followed the introduction of Nigeria’s Non-Associated Gas (NAG) incentives in 2024, which restored the project’s commercial viability and unlocked additional gas supply for Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG).
According to Wood Mackenzie, the project reflects a clear improvement in investor confidence.
“Nigeria’s NAG incentives have materially improved gas economics, allowing projects that were previously marginal to reach FID,” the firm said.
Reversal from a Weak Investment Record
The latest milestone marks a sharp departure from Nigeria’s earlier performance. Between 2015 and 2023, the country captured just 4 percent of Africa’s sanctioned FIDs, securing $5 billion across six of 44 projects.
In contrast, Nigeria has attracted 38 percent of Africa’s sanctioned FIDs over the past two years, accounting for $8 billion across five of eight projects approved continent-wide.
Wood Mackenzie attributed the turnaround to fiscal and regulatory reforms implemented over the last 24 months. The firm said Nigeria now offers some of the most competitive deep-water fiscal terms globally, alongside the most attractive gas terms in Africa.
Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie expects Nigeria to sustain the momentum into 2026. The firm said targeted incentives and a stable, investor-focused policy framework could support additional FIDs.
Nigeria’s resurgence positions it as a standout destination for upstream oil and gas investment at a time when capital discipline and policy uncertainty continue to constrain activity across much of Sub-Saharan Africa.