Nigeria has lost 37.6 million barrels of crude oil in the past five years, translating to about ₦8.1tn, due to oil theft and metering failures, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Although the regulator celebrated progress in curbing daily losses, experts warn that the cumulative damage continues to weaken the economy, scare investors, and expose governance failures.
Breaking down the losses
NUPRC’s figures show the scale of theft:
- 2021: 37.6m barrels stolen
- 2022: 20.9m barrels
- 2023: 4.3m barrels
- 2024: 4.1m barrels
- Jan–July 2025: 2.04m barrels
Using Brent crude benchmarks, these losses equal $5.61bn, which at current exchange rates is about ₦8.1tn.
To illustrate the impact, that money could have built 56,000 primary health centres, 129,000 classroom blocks, or 10,000km of roads. Instead, it vanished into the shadows of theft and vandalism.
Experts voice concerns
Energy consultant Chukwuma Atuanya acknowledged that reducing daily losses to 9,600 barrels per day in 2025 marks progress, but stressed that the country still falls short of its 2 million barrels per day production target.
“Oil theft drains foreign exchange, weakens the naira, and distorts government budgets. Investors lose confidence when export volumes remain uncertain,” he explained.
Atuanya further highlighted the environmental and social costs, from polluted farmlands to rising insecurity in the Niger Delta.
Doubts over NUPRC’s data
Not everyone accepts the regulator’s figures. Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy law scholar at the University of Lagos, argued that weak metering systems make it impossible to know the true scale of theft.
“It may be 2 million barrels lost, or even double that. Without transparent and credible measurement, the numbers are unreliable,” he said.
He accused security agencies of selective enforcement. “They destroy illegal refineries but fail to prosecute the masterminds. Nobody is jailed despite trillions lost. That reflects systemic complicity,” Ayoade added.
NUPRC defends progress
In response, the NUPRC said reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), deployment of surveillance technology, and stronger community monitoring have driven losses to the lowest point since 2009.
“Between January and July 2025, we averaged 9,600 barrels per day in losses compared to 102,900 bpd in 2021. This marks a clear turnaround,” the commission stated.
The bigger picture
Even with reduced theft, the cumulative ₦8.1tn already lost highlights Nigeria’s squandered opportunities. That sum could have transformed healthcare, education, and infrastructure nationwide.
Experts insist that while zero theft may be unrealistic, losses can be reduced to tolerable levels if Nigeria strengthens metering, enforces stricter penalties, prosecutes complicit officials, and secures genuine host community participation.
As Professor Ayoade bluntly concluded:
“Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”