Nigeria has once again fallen short of its OPEC+ crude oil production quota, missing its allocated output target for the fifth consecutive month, according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
Data submitted by Nigerian authorities to OPEC show that the country’s crude oil production declined in December 2025 to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.436 million bpd in November. The figure remains below Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd quota under the current OPEC+ agreement.
Conflicting Output Figures Deepen Uncertainty
While Nigeria’s official data confirm another shortfall, OPEC’s secondary sources paint a slightly more optimistic picture. These estimates place Nigeria’s December crude production at 1.5 million bpd, up from 1.491 million bpd in the previous month.
The divergence underscores long-standing measurement and reporting challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector. Notably, NNPC Limited includes condensate production in its output figures, while OPEC quotas and assessments exclude condensates, focusing strictly on crude oil volumes.
NNPCL reported combined crude and condensate output of about 1.6 million bpd in November 2025, representing a marginal increase from October levels, but this still does not translate into quota compliance under OPEC rules.
NNPCL Targets Recovery Amid Upstream Reforms
Despite the repeated quota misses, NNPCL says it is intensifying collaboration with joint venture partners to improve production performance, maximise infrastructure uptime and enhance facility maintenance across its assets.
The national oil company has set an ambitious roadmap to raise crude oil production to 2 million bpd by 2027, with a longer-term target of 3 million bpd by 2030, driven by upstream reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
In recent months, Nigeria has increased drilling activity and crude output, with daily crude and condensate production estimated between 1.7 million and 1.83 million bpd, supported by a rise in active rigs from 31 in January to about 50 by mid-year.
However, analysts note that sustaining higher crude-only output—excluding condensates—will be critical if Nigeria is to consistently meet its OPEC+ quota and strengthen its position within the global oil market.