Nigeria again failed to meet its crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, after recording average daily crude production of 1.49 million barrels per day in April 2026, slightly below the country’s 1.5 million bpd allocation.
Latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, showed that Nigeria produced 1,488,540 barrels of crude oil per day in April, representing about 99.2 per cent of the OPEC target. When condensate production was added, total daily oil output rose to 1.66 million barrels per day.
The latest figure means Nigeria has now missed its OPEC production quota for nine consecutive months since July 2025, despite repeated government assurances on improved output and efforts to curb crude theft and pipeline vandalism.
Although production remained below target, April output showed an improvement compared to previous months. Nigeria’s crude production rose by about 108,540 barrels per day from the 1.38 million bpd recorded in March, representing a 7.9 per cent month-on-month increase. Total oil production, including condensates, also improved from 1.55 million bpd in March to 1.66 million bpd in April.
The NUPRC report further showed that combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.85 million barrels per day during the month, while the lowest daily production stood at 1.46 million bpd, highlighting continued fluctuations in supply performance.
Nigeria’s oil sector has continued to struggle with persistent challenges including crude theft, pipeline sabotage, ageing infrastructure, delayed upstream investments and operational shutdowns. Industry analysts said the country’s inability to consistently meet its OPEC quota reflects deeper structural issues within the upstream sector despite recent security interventions and production recovery efforts.
The latest production data also contradicted an earlier claim by the NUPRC that Nigeria’s oil output had reached an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, raising fresh concerns over production sustainability and actual field performance.
In 2025, Nigeria only met or slightly exceeded its OPEC quota in January, June and July, while production remained below allocation for most of the year. Analysts say sustained investment in upstream infrastructure, improved pipeline security and stable evacuation channels will be critical if the country hopes to consistently achieve or surpass its OPEC target in the coming months.