Nigeria’s crude oil output remained below its quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in January 2026, extending its streak of underperformance to six consecutive months.
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report shows that Nigeria produced 1.459 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January. This marks an increase from the 1.422 million barrels per day (mbpd) recorded in December 2025. However, production still fell short of the 1.5 mbpd allocation.
The January output represents a month-on-month rise of about 38,000 barrels per day. Nevertheless, Nigeria has not met its OPEC quota since August 2022.
Output Recovery Falls Short of Quota
Production declined in December 2025, dropping by roughly 14,000 barrels per day from November levels. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show output slipped from 1.436 mbpd in November to 1.422 mbpd in December.
In 2025, Nigeria met or slightly exceeded its OPEC quota in only three months — January, June, and July. The year began strongly, with output reaching 1.54 mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above the target.
Production, however, fell to 1.47 mbpd in February and dropped further to 1.40 mbpd in March, marking one of the widest shortfalls of the year.
Although output improved to 1.49 mbpd in April and 1.45 mbpd in May, it remained below quota. Nigeria briefly exceeded its allocation in June and July, producing 1.51 mbpd in both months. The gains proved temporary, as output slipped again in the months that followed.
Overall, Nigeria’s crude production declined by more than 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year.
Outlook for Production Growth
Industry watchers expect output to improve as domestic refining expands. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE recently announced it has reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Policymakers believe this milestone could strengthen upstream activity and improve supply stability.
Meanwhile, NUPRC’s chief executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to raise production levels. She outlined a strategy focused on three priorities: boosting output and revenue, improving regulatory efficiency, and ensuring safe, sustainable operations.
According to Eyesan, the commission plans to recover viable shut-in volumes, reduce field decline, cut production losses, and speed up time-to-first oil. The goal aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s target to increase Nigeria’s crude output to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.