Nigeria’s 2025 fiscal budget is running a deficit despite recent gains in crude oil production, as total output still falls short of government projections.
Between January and July, the country pumped 354.26 million barrels of oil, against the benchmark target of 436.72 million barrels set in the 2025 Appropriation Act. This represents an 18.9 percent shortfall, or about 82.46 million barrels.
The fiscal plan had been based on a daily production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) at an oil price of $75 per barrel. Actual production, however, has consistently lagged behind.
In January, output stood at 53.86 million barrels compared to a target of 63.86 million, while February delivered 44.81 million barrels against 57.68 million. March and April recorded 49.72 million and 50.50 million barrels, respectively, both below expectations of more than 61 million barrels each.
Although production improved slightly in June and July, the gap persisted. June posted 50.91 million barrels against a benchmark of 61.80 million, while July recorded 53.08 million barrels, still below the expected 63.86 million.
On a daily average, output in July rose modestly by 0.88 percent to 1.712 million bpd, up from 1.697 million bpd in June. Peak daily production reached 1.84 million barrels, with the lowest at 1.66 million barrels. Excluding condensates, crude output averaged 1.507 million bpd — marginally above Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
The World Bank has warned that Nigeria’s 2025 fiscal assumptions of 2.1 million bpd at $75 per barrel were overly optimistic, cautioning that persistent underperformance could deepen budgetary pressures and limit the government’s capacity to fund key obligations.