Nigeria’s crude oil production increased by 2.34 percent in September to an average of 1.72 million barrels per day, including condensates, extending the country’s run of meeting its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota to five consecutive months.
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that crude oil production, excluding condensates, averaged 1.53 million barrels per day during the month, exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC-assigned quota of 1.5 million barrels per day by approximately 30,000 barrels.
The commission’s spokesman, Eniola Akinkuotu, said daily production, including condensates, peaked at 1.84 million barrels in September, while the lowest recorded output was 1.68 million barrels per day.
The latest figures reinforce Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer and extend the recovery recorded since May, when crude output stood at 1.53 million barrels per day.
Production subsequently increased to 1.55 million barrels per day in June before easing to 1.51 million barrels in July and 1.5 million barrels in August. Output returned to 1.53 million barrels per day in September, maintaining compliance with the OPEC quota for a fifth straight month.
The NUPRC attributed the latest improvement to relatively stable operations across most producing assets and the absence of major pipeline outages during the month.
According to the commission, improved operational stability helped sustain production uptime and made crude oil evacuation more efficient, enabling operators to maintain output across the upstream petroleum sector.
The regulator also credited operators and other industry stakeholders with efforts to improve operational efficiency, preserve asset integrity and strengthen production reliability.
A breakdown of output by terminal showed that Forcados recorded the highest average daily production in September at 320,320 barrels, followed by Bonny Terminal with 303,270 barrels per day.
The performance comes against the backdrop of persistent challenges that have historically constrained Nigeria’s crude oil production, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and disruptions to production and evacuation.
Maintaining output above the OPEC quota could support crude oil export volumes and government revenue if the gains are sustained. However, consistent production will remain dependent on reliable infrastructure, stable operations and the ability to prevent disruptions across producing assets and evacuation routes.
Nigeria is targeting crude oil production of two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030 as part of efforts to maximise its petroleum resources, increase foreign exchange earnings and strengthen government revenue.
Despite the recent improvement, the targets require substantial additional production capacity. September’s average crude output of 1.53 million barrels per day, excluding condensates, remained approximately 470,000 barrels below the two-million-barrel target and 1.47 million barrels below the 2030 ambition.
The challenge for the country will therefore be to convert its recent run of quota compliance into sustained production growth capable of supporting its longer-term ambitions.