Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped below its OPEC quota in August, breaking a two-month run of output gains.
According to fresh data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the country pumped an average of 1.43 million barrels per day (mbpd) in August. This was lower than 1.507 mbpd in July and 1.505 mbpd in June, when Nigeria had managed to slightly exceed its 1.5 mbpd quota.
As a result, Nigeria missed its August target by about 66,000 barrels per day. The decline also marked a sharp drop of 73,000 bpd compared with July.
Setback After Recent Gains
The reversal came after officials had hailed June and July as proof of recovery in the oil sector. Output had averaged 1.47 mbpd in Q1 and 1.48 mbpd in Q2, raising hopes of stability.
This year, Nigeria met its OPEC quota only three times: January (1.54 mbpd), June (1.505 mbpd), and July (1.507 mbpd). Production slipped to 1.46 mbpd in February, then fell further to 1.40 mbpd in March. It rose again to 1.48 mbpd in April but dropped back to 1.45 mbpd in May.
Government Push to Boost Output
To tackle volatility, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has launched the Project One Million Barrels Initiative. The programme, introduced in 2024, focuses on restarting idle fields, speeding up approvals, and improving efficiency.
NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, said output, including condensates, had climbed from 1.4 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd. Recent figures show daily production averaging 1.7–1.83 mbpd. He stressed that the addition of about 300,000 bpd reflects progress toward the target of 2.5 mbpd by 2026.
President Bola Tinubu has also set long-term goals. He directed the new Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) board—led by Chairman Ahmadu Kida and GCEO Bayo Ojulari—to raise output to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030. The government also aims to boost gas production to 8 bcf/d by 2027 and 10 bcf/d by 2030, while lifting NNPC’s refining share to 200,000 bpd by 2027 and 500,000 bpd by 2030.
Ojulari, speaking at the board’s inauguration in May, said oil production had already grown to 1.7 mbpd within two months. He projected a further rise to 1.9 mbpd by December 2025.
Volatility Still a Challenge
Despite signs of progress, Nigeria’s oil industry remains unstable. The country missed its OPEC quota throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. In January 2025, production rose to 1.539 mbpd, exceeding the target by 39,000 bpd. But output soon slipped again.
Analysts note that June and July offered a rare boost. However, the August decline shows the sector’s vulnerability to theft, underinvestment, and operational disruptions. These issues continue to threaten the government’s ambitious targets.