Nigeria’s petrol market sent a clear signal in November: supply expanded, but consumption eased. Official NMDPRA data shows that the average daily petrol consumption fell to about 53 million litres, from 57 million litres in October, even as total PMS supply surged to its highest level in over a year.
The numbers point to a market in transition, one shaped by inventory build-up, import timing, and the growing influence of local refining, led by the Dangote Refinery.
Supply Expansion Outpaces Market Drawdown
Total daily Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply rose sharply to about 71.5 million litres per day in November, reflecting a deliberate push to stabilise availability ahead of peak end-of-year demand.
However, actual market drawdown averaged just over 52–53 million litres per day, down from 57 million litres per day in October, confirming a moderation in nationwide petrol consumption.
Industry data attribute the supply spike to several operational factors:
- Supply shortfalls recorded in September and October, which fell below estimated demand thresholds;
- Strategic stock build-up to support festive-season consumption;
- NNPCL imports as supplier of last resort to guarantee system liquidity;
- Twelve PMS vessels initially programmed for October that discharged in November.
As a result, a significant portion of November volumes went into inventory rather than immediate retail consumption, widening the gap between supply and usage.
Dangote Refinery Anchors Domestic PMS Supply
Domestic petrol supply in November came almost entirely from the Dangote Refinery, which evacuated an average of 23.52 million litres of PMS per day into the local market.
While this output remained below the refinery’s planned domestic supply target of 35 million litres per day, it firmly positioned Dangote as Nigeria’s only meaningful source of locally refined petrol during the month.
The refinery also supplied an average of 5.596 million litres per day of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel), reinforcing its growing footprint across key white products.
In contrast, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries remained largely inactive:
- Port Harcourt Refinery stayed shut, recording no PMS production, though evacuation of previously produced diesel continued at 0.349 million litres per day;
- Warri Refinery remained on shutdown;
- Kaduna Refinery also remained on shutdown.
What the Consumption Decline Signals
The drop in Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption to around 53 million litres reflects a market adjusting to new realities. Improved supply stability has reduced panic buying, while pricing discipline and tighter inventory controls have curbed excess demand.
Crucially, the data suggest that Nigeria now has the capacity to oversupply PMS when required, even as actual consumption becomes more restrained and predictable.
For policymakers, operators, and marketers the message is clear: supply security is improving faster than demand growth. As domestic refining scales up and import dependence gradually eases, consumption trends, not just supply volumes will increasingly shape pricing, logistics planning, and downstream investment decisions.