Nigeria’s petrol market faced renewed pressure in November 2025, with latest NMDPRA data revealing the country imported an average of 52 million litres of PMS daily. This figure marks the highest monthly import volume so far this year, underscoring the persistent reliance on foreign supply despite claims of stronger domestic refining capacity.
As previously reported by Petroleumprice.ng, Dangote Refinery stated that “the facility loads over 45 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily.” But the NMDPRA supply receipts shows the numbers that truly matter for national supply tell a noticeably different story, national supply is still heavily import-dependent. This gap between refinery load-out announcements and actual supply inflows continues to shape market dynamics.
Imports Continue to Drive Petrol Supply
Breaking down November’s PMS supply:
- Imports (OMCs): 52m litres/day
- Domestic refinery receipts: 19.5m litres/day
- Total national supply: 71.5m litres/day
Imports covered 73% of national demand, leaving domestic refining to supply just 27%. This pattern mirrors the year-long trend captured in NMDPRA’s supply chart, confirming imports as the backbone of Nigeria’s petrol market.
PMS Supply Trend: January–November 2025
The table below summarises domestic and import contributions, highlighting total and average volumes:
| Month | Domestic (litres/day) | Imports (litres/day) | Total (litres/day) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 19.1m | 24.7m | 43.7m |
| February | 24.8m | 27.3m | 52.2m |
| March | 23.3m | 38.3m | 61.6m |
| April | 21.5m | 36.2m | 56.2m |
| May | 18.5m | 38.8m | 57.3m |
| June | 18.3m | 32.4m | 50.7m |
| July | 14.5m | 38.1m | 52.6m |
| August | 11.4m | 35.0m | 46.2m |
| September | 17.6m | 22.3m | 39.7m |
| October | 17.1m | 29.2m | 46.3m |
| November | 19.5m | 52.0m | 71.5m |
Key insight: domestic refining averaged 18.7 million litres/day, far below imports at 35.8 million litres/day, highlighting a structural dependency on foreign PMS.
Why November Supply Jumped
The NMDPRA attributes November’s record inflow to several factors:
- Supply shortfalls in September and October, which created a backlog.
- Festive stockpiling, as marketers prepared for year-end demand spikes.
- NNPCL interventions as supplier of last resort, increasing imports.
- Vessel delays, with shipments originally scheduled for October arriving in November.
These combined factors produced the largest monthly PMS inflow of the year, stressing the importance of logistics in stabilising supply.
Domestic Refining Still Trails Load-Out Claims
Despite claims of high refinery output:
- Domestic receipts fluctuated between 11m and 24m litres/day.
- February recorded the highest domestic supply at 24.8m litres/day.
- November’s 19.5m litres/day still lagged behind refinery announcements.
The gap exists because depot receipts capture actual inflows, not truck-out figures. Factors such as trucking delays, documentation lags, jetty scheduling, and pipeline bottlenecks frequently depress official figures.
Market Implications
- Imports dominate national supply, reflecting ongoing structural reliance.
- Domestic refining contributes less than 30% of total PMS in most months.
- September–October supply gaps drove November’s import surge.
- November’s 52m litres/day is the year’s peak, signalling systemic dependency.
- Supply stability hinges on efficient logistics, not refinery output alone.
Downstream Outlook
Nigeria’s downstream market remains highly sensitive:
- Heavy import dependence exposes the sector to FX pressure.
- Pump prices remain vulnerable to global premiums and freight fluctuations.
- NNPCL acts as the stabiliser during domestic shortfalls.
- Sustainable supply requires end-to-end infrastructure improvements, including pipelines, depot throughput, marine scheduling, and trucking.
November’s record imports reinforce a structural reality: Nigeria’s petrol market is still shaped more by imported vessels than domestic refining output.