Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped in May, dealing another blow to the government’s push to achieve a daily output of two million barrels.
Fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that crude oil production averaged 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) last month. That figure is down from 1.48 million bpd recorded in April. When condensates are added, total daily output stood at 1.65 million bpd, slightly lower than April’s 1.68 million bpd.
The decline reverses the modest gains seen earlier in the year. In March, production had improved to 1.4 million bpd, rising to 1.48 million bpd in April. Those gains briefly raised hopes that Nigeria could close the gap toward its 2.1 million bpd target. But May’s figures now cast doubt on that momentum.
Tinubu’s Oil Sector Plan Faces Hurdles
In May, President Bola Tinubu appointed a new board for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). He tasked them with raising crude production to 2 million bpd by 2027 and reaching 3 million bpd by 2030.
The new board, chaired by Ahmadu Kida and led by Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari, also received a mandate to boost gas output and increase local refining capacity. Tinubu expects domestic refining to hit 200,000 bpd by 2027 and rise to 500,000 bpd by 2030.
Following their appointment, Ojulari said the NNPC had begun reviewing operations and engaging stakeholders. He claimed that production had climbed to 1.7 million bpd within two months and projected a rise to 1.9 million bpd by year-end. But the May report does not reflect that growth trajectory.
Nigeria Struggles to Meet OPEC Quota
The NUPRC stated that May’s average crude oil production represented 97% of Nigeria’s OPEC quota, which currently stands at 1.5 million bpd. The commission reported that daily production in May ranged between 1.61 million bpd and 1.81 million bpd, including condensates.
Although condensate volumes helped lift overall figures, crude oil output remains stuck below expectations. In January, Nigeria produced 1.538 million bpd, briefly exceeding its quota. That was a jump from 1.4 million bpd in December 2024.
However, production began to fall again in February and has not recovered to the highs seen at the start of the year. These fluctuations continue to undermine the government’s oil revenue projections.
Can Nigeria Reverse the Slide?
Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri has repeatedly claimed that Nigeria can produce 3 million bpd. However, that optimism has yet to translate into consistent performance.
The government has also set ambitious targets for gas. It aims to reach 8 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and expand to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Whether Nigeria can meet those goals remains uncertain, especially as crude production continues to miss key benchmarks.
Despite efforts by the new NNPC leadership, the country’s oil output struggles to stabilize. The latest dip raises fresh questions about the feasibility of achieving the administration’s ambitious targets.