Nigeria’s oil industry, once the engine of Africa’s largest economy, has experienced a sharp decline in crude oil production between 2015 and 2025. Despite multiple spikes in global oil prices, the country consistently underperformed in both volume and revenue generation.
The following data illustrates a decade-long trend of declining production amid fluctuating market prices:
Nigeria’s Oil Production and Average Oil Prices (2015–2025)
| Year | Average Daily Production (mbpd) | Annual Production (million barrels) | Average Price (USD/barrel) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2.171 | ~793.4 | ~$52 |
| 2016 | 1.871 | ~683.9 | ~$44 |
| 2017 | 1.946 | ~710.3 | ~$54 |
| 2018 | 1.910 | ~697.2 | ~$71 |
| 2019 | 1.946 | ~710.3 | ~$64 |
| 2020 | 1.894 | ~670.8 | ~$41 |
| 2021 | 1.678 | ~570.7 | ~$71 |
| 2022 | 1.445 | ~502.4 | ~$100–$123 |
| 2023 | 1.540 | ~536.0 | ~$82 |
| 2024 | 1.507 | ~566.8 | ~$81 |
| 2025* | 1.495 (Jan) | N/A | ~$73 (as of March) |
2025 data based on NUPRC January figures and Brent/BLL price estimates.
Missed Revenue in a Decade of Opportunities
Nigeria had ample chances to build strong oil reserves and improve public finances. However, recurring security threats, crude theft, and poor investment climates steadily eroded production potential. Even when global oil prices peaked, Nigeria lacked the output needed to fully benefit.
For instance, in 2022, when prices climbed to over $120 per barrel, Nigeria’s production plummeted to just 502 million barrels, one of its lowest outputs in recent history. In contrast, 2017, with modest prices around $54 per barrel, saw a higher production of 710 million barrels.
Decline in Budget Performance and Forex Reserves
Year after year, Nigeria failed to meet its crude oil budget benchmarks. Most federal budgets projected over 2.0 mbpd, yet actual output stayed below. This underperformance widened fiscal deficits, weakened the naira, and drained external reserves.
Furthermore, the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023 coupled with exchange rate unification reduced government spending capacity. Households bore the brunt of economic shocks while oil revenue stagnated.
Reforms Needed for Industry Turnaround
Nigeria still holds vast reserves of crude oil. Yet, without a change in policy direction, the sector risks permanent decline. Industry experts call for:
- Full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)
- A crackdown on oil theft and pipeline vandalism
- Transparent licensing and regulatory frameworks
- Greater public private investment partnerships
With the Nigeria Agenda 2050 outlining a pathway to energy security, the country must take immediate action to revitalise its oil industry. Otherwise, it will continue missing out on historic revenue opportunities.