Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped in February, raising fresh concerns about the country’s ability to fully capitalise on rising global oil prices at a time when petroleum revenues remain critical to the nation’s economy.
Latest figures released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that Nigeria’s oil output fell to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, marking a notable decline from 1.45 million bpd recorded in January.
The drop represents a 10.69 per cent decrease month-on-month, according to the oil cartel’s latest monthly market report.
Nigeria Falls Short Of Production Quota
Despite remaining Africa’s top oil producer, Nigeria’s February production level fell below its 1.5 million bpd quota allocated under the OPEC+ production agreement.
The figures indicate that the country underperformed its quota by roughly 190,000 barrels per day.
However, Nigeria still maintained its position as the continent’s leading oil producer, staying ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.28 million bpd within the same period.
OPEC noted that the production data was obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities, a method the organisation typically uses alongside independent secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms.
Secondary Sources Show Slightly Higher Production
While official data from Nigerian authorities placed production at 1.31 million bpd, secondary sources cited by OPEC estimated Nigeria’s output at 1.46 million bpd in February.
Even at that level, production still declined slightly by 0.68 per cent compared to 1.47 million bpd recorded in January.
Industry analysts say the difference between the two figures reflects the varying methodologies used by government reporting channels and independent energy monitoring agencies.
OPEC Raises Production Targets
Meanwhile, the oil producers’ alliance has moved to gradually increase supply in response to shifting global market conditions.
Earlier this month, OPEC+ and its allies agreed to raise crude oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April.
The decision comes amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following the conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran, which has injected fresh volatility into the global oil market.
The crisis recently pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel on March 9, the highest level since July 2022, before prices eased to around $87 per barrel the following day.
Revenue Implications For Nigeria
Energy analysts warn that Nigeria’s declining production could limit the country’s ability to maximise revenue from rising global oil prices.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s biggest source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue. Any reduction in output directly affects inflows into the federation account, which funds federal, state
and local government budgets.
With benchmark crude prices trending upward due to global market uncertainties, analysts say higher production levels could translate into billions of naira in additional oil revenue for the country.
However, if output continues to lag behind production targets, Nigeria may struggle to take full advantage of favourable market conditions.
For Africa’s largest oil producer, the challenge remains clear: boost production while global prices remain strong, or risk leaving significant revenue opportunities on the table.