Nigeria’s oil sector is seeing renewed momentum as national crude output rises to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd). Local refiners and organised labour are pressing for this surge to translate into increased feedstock supply to domestic refineries and lower pump prices for consumers.
Eche Idoko, spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), said refiners would intensify efforts to secure more crude, noting that while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) plans to increase deliveries to Dangote Refinery from five to seven cargoes, the figure remains below the refinery’s 14-cargo daily requirement.
“We welcome the increase, but seven out of 14 cargoes is still far from meeting our operational needs,” Idoko stated. He emphasised that the effective implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) is critical to ensuring refineries operate efficiently and profitably.
Idoko added that consistent crude supply is not just a lifeline for refiners, including modular plants, but also benefits government revenues through taxes, levies, and charges generated from operational refineries. “With reliable feedstock, refineries gain cash flow, and the government benefits from increased revenue streams,” he said.
The NUPRC recently confirmed that daily production climbed from 1.48mbpd in February to 1.84mbpd in March, attributing prior declines to facility incidents and maintenance activities that have since been resolved. Chief Executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan assured that production is set to rise further, provided there are no disruptions.
Organised labour, represented by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), welcomed the uptick but flagged longstanding transparency gaps in production reporting and crude metering. A senior NLC official, speaking anonymously, warned that without fully metered production data and effective domestic crude allocation, Nigerians may not see relief at the pumps despite higher output.
“Higher production should allow domestic refiners like Dangote and modular plants to operate at capacity, which in turn should lower PMS prices. But policy implementation is key,” the NLC source said. Labour also highlighted that rising global oil prices should benefit Nigeria’s revenue position, estimating windfall gains of $40–$50 per barrel above the 2026 budget benchmark if production remains at 1.8mbpd.
Both refiners and labour emphasised that resolving crude allocation and pricing issues is critical to translating higher production into tangible benefits for the domestic market. Without this, the NLC warned, increased output risks exposing persistent inefficiencies in the economy and leaving consumers vulnerable to high fuel prices.
Market analysts note that the combination of higher output, more consistent crude supply, and effective DCSO enforcement could stabilise the downstream sector, reduce import dependence, and shield Nigeria from international oil market volatility.