Nigeria maintained a 21 day petrol sufficiency level in March 2026, as supply conditions remained tight against the backdrop of rising global oil prices and ongoing market disruptions, according to data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
The figure reflects the number of days the country can sustain petrol consumption based on available stock, including volumes held at the Dangote Refinery, which has become a central contributor to domestic supply.
Data from the regulator shows that average daily petrol consumption stood at 47.3 million litres, while domestic supply averaged 34.2 million litres per day in March. This leaves a supply gap of approximately 13 million litres per day, which continues to be supplemented through imports. Despite improved local supply, largely driven by Dangote Refinery, the 21 day sufficiency level underscores a relatively narrow buffer, exposing the market to potential disruptions in supply chains or import flows.
Global Market Pressures Persist
The sufficiency level comes at a time of heightened volatility in the international oil market. Brent crude averaged 103.89 dollars per barrel, while gasoline prices rose to 1,046.52 dollars per metric tonne during the review period. These global benchmarks continue to shape domestic supply dynamics, particularly in a market where imports still play a critical role in bridging supply shortfalls.
Domestic refining capacity remained constrained in March, with state owned refineries shut down and modular refineries contributing less than 1 million litres per day combined. Out of the 48.2 million litres per day of PMS produced, only 34.2 million litres per day was supplied domestically, with Dangote Refinery accounting for the bulk of that volume. The inclusion of Dangote held stock in national reserves highlights its growing importance not only in daily supply but also in supporting Nigeria’s fuel sufficiency position.
Retail petrol prices remained elevated across the country during the period, reflecting both global cost pressures and local supply constraints. Average pump prices were recorded at 1,140.50 naira per litre in Lagos, 1,202 naira per litre in Abuja, and 1,270 naira per litre in Enugu. The price spread across regions also points to logistics and distribution inefficiencies, in addition to underlying supply tightness.
Beyond petrol, the data points to emerging pressures in other segments of the energy market. Diesel supply remained significantly low at 2.2 million litres per day against production of 16.5 million litres, while liquefied petroleum gas demand outpaced supply, with consumption at 5,122 metric tonnes per day versus supply of 4,726 metric tonnes. These trends suggest that energy supply challenges extend beyond petrol, reinforcing concerns about overall fuel security.
Overall, the March data highlights a delicate balance in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, where improved domestic refining, driven largely by Dangote Refinery, is beginning to reshape the market but has yet to fully eliminate dependence on imports. With petrol sufficiency holding at 21 days and global oil prices remaining elevated, the country’s downstream sector continues to operate within tight supply margins, leaving it sensitive to both external shocks and internal production stability.