Nigeria’s refining sector continues to operate far below potential, despite having an installed capacity of 1.125 million barrels per day, the Federal Government has disclosed.
Fresh data contained in the October 2025 Midstream and Downstream Fact Sheet published by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed that refinery utilisation averaged 61.58 per cent between January and September 2025.
The regulator attributed the shortfall to persistent crude supply shortages, technical constraints and recurring downtime at government-owned plants.
Only Four Refineries Active
According to the document, only four refineries — Dangote, Aradel (11,000bpd), Edo (1,000bpd) and Waltersmith (5,000bpd) — are currently operational, with a combined performance capacity of 467,000 barrels per day.
The 650,000bpd Dangote Refinery remains the largest contributor, although the facility is still operating below nameplate capacity. NMDPRA figures show that the refinery processed 449,000bpd in October, even as the company plans to scale up to 1.4 million bpd.
Rehabilitation Ongoing in State Refineries
The report also outlined progress at government-owned refineries under phased rehabilitation. The Port Harcourt Refinery comprises an older 60,000bpd unit and a newer 150,000bpd train, while the Warri and Kaduna plants have installed capacities of 125,000bpd and 110,000bpd respectively.
In the modular refining segment, active facilities include Waltersmith (5,000bpd), Duport (2,500bpd), Edo (1,000bpd), OPAC (10,000bpd) and Aradel’s modular train (11,000bpd).
Licensing Numbers Rise, but Construction Trails Behind
Despite an aggressive licensing programme spanning two decades, progress remains sluggish. Since 2000, NMDPRA has issued:
- 47 Licences to Establish (LTE) refineries, representing 1.752 million bpd in proposed capacity
- 31 Licences to Construct (LTC) covering 1.228 million bpd
However, only three refineries are currently under active construction with a combined capacity of 47,000bpd — including Waltersmith Train 2 (5,000bpd), AIPCC (30,000bpd) and Azikel (12,000bpd).
The fact sheet notes that licensing progress has not translated to commensurate operational output.
Refiners Raise Alarm Over Crude Access
Industry stakeholders continue to warn that refinery projects will stall unless feedstock supply improves.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Eche Idoko, said many private projects cannot reach final investment decision because investors lack guarantees on crude availability.
He explained:
“Crude availability is the biggest barrier. If operational refineries are already struggling to secure supply, it becomes difficult to attract financing for new projects.”
Similarly, CORAN Vice-Chairman Dolapo Okulaja argued that although the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) mandates domestic crude allocation, many refiners receive only a fraction of their required volumes.
“You cannot run a refinery built for 20,000 barrels per day while receiving 5,000 or less. The policy needs practical enforcement, not just legal backing,” she added.
CORAN President Momoh Oyarekhua also criticised conflicting provisions in the PIA — particularly the willing buyer, willing seller clause — which he said undermines domestic supply obligations.
Push for Compliance and Market Stability
As Nigeria pursues reduced petroleum imports and improved domestic fuel security, NMDPRA is expected to ramp up regulatory oversight to close the widening gap between refining ambition and actual output.