Nigerians consumed an average of 60.2 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day in January 2026, underscoring the country’s persistent fuel demand despite ongoing supply-side adjustments.
Fresh data from NMDPRA cited by Petroleumprice.ng shows that petrol consumption in January significantly exceeded the national 2026 demand benchmark of 50 million litres per day. In other words, actual usage came in 10.2 million litres above benchmark, reflecting strong mobility demand, commercial activity and steady transport-sector reliance on petrol.
However, while consumption remained elevated, domestic supply dynamics shifted in a more favourable direction compared to December 2025.
Domestic Supply Strengthens as Demand Holds Firm
Even as Nigerians consumed 60.2ML daily, domestic PMS supply improved markedly.
The regulator reported that actual average domestic PMS supply rose to 40.1ML/day in January, up from 32ML/day recorded in December 2025. That represents an 8.1ML/day month-on-month increase, signalling improved refinery throughput and stronger operational performance.
Consequently, local refining covered a larger share of national demand in January than it did in December. This reduced pressure on imports and narrowed the structural supply gap.
Moreover, national PMS sufficiency climbed to 33 days, reflecting a 13% improvement compared to December 2025. At the same time, marine stock declined due to reduced import volumes — a clear indication that domestic output increasingly displaced foreign supply.
In practical terms, Nigerians consumed more than 60 million litres daily, yet the country relied less on imports than it did a month earlier. That is a meaningful supply-side shift.
Capacity Utilisation and Market Stability Indicators
Operational data further reinforce the trend.
Average refinery capacity utilisation in January stood at 61.27%, while peak utilisation reached 67.69% during the month. These levels align with the rise in domestic PMS supply from 32ML/day in December to 40.1ML/day in January.
At the same time, broader downstream indicators confirm sustained demand across product lines:
- Diesel (AGO) consumption: 19.2ML/day
- Aviation fuel (ATK) consumption: 3.5ML/day
- LPG domestic supply: 5,110 metric tonnes per day
- LPG consumption: 5,050MT/day
These figures show that energy demand remained resilient beyond petrol alone. Nevertheless, PMS remains the dominant driver of downstream volumes.
Importantly, stronger domestic supply in January helped stabilise stock levels entering 2026. With 33 days of PMS sufficiency, the market carried a more comfortable buffer compared to December.
December vs January: A Clear Structural Signal
The comparison between December 2025 and January 2026 reveals a critical structural development.
In December, domestic PMS supply averaged 32ML/day, leaving a wider shortfall relative to consumption. Imports therefore played a more prominent balancing role.
By January, however, domestic supply climbed to 40.1ML/day, sufficiency improved by 13%, and marine imports declined. While consumption remained high at 60.2ML/day, the supply mix shifted towards stronger local contribution.
Therefore, January did not merely record high petrol use. It marked a month in which supply resilience improved even as demand stayed robust.
NMDPRA data confirm that Nigerians consumed 60.2 million litres of petrol daily in January 2026, well above the 50ML/day benchmark.
However, the more strategic takeaway lies in the supply response. Domestic PMS output increased from 32ML/day in December to 40.1ML/day in January, stock sufficiency strengthened to 33 days, and import reliance eased.
If refinery performance remains stable and crude feedstock allocation stays consistent, the downstream market could enter a more balanced phase in 2026 — where strong demand no longer automatically translates into heavy import dependence.