The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) says it will formally request a 25% increase in Nigeria’s crude oil production quota from OPEC, citing improved infrastructure, growing domestic refining capacity, and rising production momentum.
Speaking in a report published by Argus Media, NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Bayo Ojulari disclosed that the state-owned company is preparing to participate in OPEC+’s upcoming capacity reassessment talks, scheduled ahead of the group’s ministerial conference on November 30.
Nigeria Aims to Produce 2m bpd by 2027
Nigeria’s current OPEC quota stands at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). However, actual crude production remains slightly below that level at just under 1.4 million bpd. When condensates are included, total output rises to approximately 1.65 million bpd.
Ojulari confirmed that NNPCL plans to hit 2 million bpd by 2027, with production capacity projected to reach 2.4 million bpd. This includes 1.7 million bpd of crude and 300,000 bpd of condensate.
“By 2027, we’ll ask OPEC to raise our quota to 2 million bpd,” he said. “We’re positioning ourselves for that conversation.”
The company’s long-term roadmap targets 3 million bpd of total output by 2030, with 2.5 million bpd crude and 500,000 bpd condensate, supported by projected capacity of 3.5 million bpd.
Refining Boom Strengthens Nigeria’s Case
Ojulari’s optimism is tied to Nigeria’s rapid expansion in refining infrastructure. The 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery recently came on stream, and over 500,000 bpd of modular capacity is currently under construction or nearing completion.
“In the next two years, Nigeria will have added 1 million bpd of local refining capacity,” Ojulari told Argus. “With this level of domestic demand, we have a stronger case to push for a bigger OPEC quota.”
A Long Road to OPEC Approval
Nigeria has repeatedly lobbied OPEC+ to revise its production baseline, which forms the foundation of quota calculations. However, these efforts failed in recent years, largely because Nigeria consistently underperformed against even existing targets.
Analysts say that recent improvements in pipeline security, operational uptime, and community engagement have revived confidence in Nigeria’s upstream sector. Ojulari believes these reforms will give NNPCL more credibility in the coming quota negotiations.
“What we get from OPEC will depend on how convincing our case is. But 2 million bpd is our target for 2027,” he added.
OPEC+ Plans New Production Baselines
OPEC+ is currently reviewing maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) for all member countries. These assessments will help determine new quota baselines from 2027 onward. The OPEC Secretariat plans to present its framework by November.
As Nigeria pushes for a favourable revision, it must compete with producers like Angola, Iraq, and the UAE, who are also lobbying for higher quotas.
Will Nigeria Deliver This Time?
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. While NNPCL’s projections appear ambitious, industry insiders acknowledge that consistent investment, security stability, and regulatory transparency are essential for credibility at the OPEC+ table.
If NNPCL ramps up production and modular refineries start full operations, Nigeria will strengthen its case for a higher OPEC quota.