Global oil prices could climb as high as $120 to $150 per barrel as supply concerns continue to dominate the market, even after the United States announced plans to release a large volume of crude from its emergency reserves.
Market analysts say the decision by the United States to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has failed to calm traders, with crude prices rising about 8% following the announcement.
The reaction reflects growing market skepticism about whether reserve releases can address deeper supply risks in the global oil market. Traders increasingly believe that long-term production and uninterrupted supply are more critical than temporary injections of oil from emergency stockpiles.
According to market estimates, the planned release would amount to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day, meaning it could take more than 100 days to fully deliver the announced 172 million barrels into the market.
However, analysts note that the SPR has already been significantly depleted in recent years. Since its previous peak, the reserve has declined by roughly half, now standing at approximately 415 million barrels. If the additional 172 million barrels are released, total reserves would drop to around 240 million barrels, a level close to the minimum volume required under U.S. law to maintain a strategic stockpile.
As a result, traders view the release as a temporary measure that does little to address broader structural supply concerns.
Market attention has instead shifted to geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day pass. Any prolonged disruption in that corridor could remove a substantial portion of global supply, an impact that analysts say cannot be offset by reserve drawdowns.
As a result, oil markets remain focused on the duration and severity of tensions affecting the shipping lane. Until there is clarity on when the situation will stabilize, traders expect crude prices to remain elevated, with the potential for further gains if supply risks intensify.