Despite calls for energy transition and global emissions targets, OPEC says oil demand will not only persist but continue growing past 2050, reaching an estimated 123 million barrels per day (bpd). This figure represents a 19 million bpd increase from today’s global consumption of roughly 104 million bpd.
In an exclusive interview with Energy Connects, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais declared that the world will require a staggering $18.2 trillion in upstream oil and gas investments by mid-century to avoid critical supply gaps.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais affirmed, challenging widely held assumptions by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and climate-focused think tanks that predict an imminent demand plateau.
Supply Investments Must Accelerate
According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2025, oil will still make up 30% of the global energy mix by 2050. This forecast contradicts many climate-aligned models and instead aligns with OPEC’s consistent stance that hydrocarbons will remain foundational to industrialisation, mobility, and petrochemical supply chains.
“The world must invest now to secure future energy needs,” Al Ghais warned, pointing to delayed project sanctions, underinvestment in exploration, and rising geopolitical risks that have constrained global upstream output.
Demand to Climb, Despite Energy Transition
Although OPEC revised short-term demand projections downward largely due to sluggish growth in China and a shift in consumption patterns it maintains that rising population, urbanisation, and an expanding global middle class will underpin long-term demand.
This position directly challenges the IEA’s view, which recently reiterated that global oil demand would peak before 2030, followed by a gradual decline.
Market Implications for Nigeria
For producer nations like Nigeria, the message is clear: oil remains bankable. With ongoing refinery upgrades, modular refining projects, and new marginal fields entering production, Nigeria could benefit from long-term bullish demand.
NNPCL GCEO Bashir Ojulari recently aligned with this view, pushing for Nigeria’s OPEC quota increase based on its growing refining capacity and renewed upstream momentum.
If the projected $18.2 trillion investment gap persists, oil-exporting countries with stable upstream frameworks and refining infrastructure like Nigeria stand to gain market share.
Final Note
As of today, crude prices softened slightly:
- Brent Crude: $69.31 (−1.49%)
- WTI Crude: $67.10 (−1.97%)
- Murban Crude: $70.80 (−1.05%)
- Natural Gas: $3.480 (+5.01%)
However, in the long term, OPEC’s bullish outlook suggests that oil demand will remain robust well into the second half of this century, with market volatility driven more by supply constraints than demand destruction.