Crude oil prices held firm on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, as traders weighed geopolitical tensions, holiday market calm, and disruptions in key producing regions. As at 6:30 (WAT) Brent crude rose marginally to 62.01 (+0.11%) and WTI crude edged up to 58.28 per barrel (+0.34%) while Murban Crude moved 61.66/b (-1.53%), Middle Eastern and Venezuelan supply risks continued to loom over markets.
Venezuela Slashes Output as US Pressure Intensifies
Venezuela’s oil output will drop sharply as the state oil company moves to scale back production. According to Bloomberg, output from heavy wells, particularly in the Junin basin, could drop by 25% to 500,000 b/d, potentially trimming 15% off total production.
Despite US sanctions and tanker seizures, Russia has delivered four naphtha shipments in December, keeping light crude flows operational. However, storage constraints for upgraded bituminous crude are increasingly pressing PDVSA, signalling tighter global supply in the near term.
Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and China Shape the Market
Oil production in Kazakhstan fell 6% in December after a drone attack on the CPC terminal, mainly affecting Chevron-operated Tengiz operations. Saudi Aramco is expected to cut February-loading cargo prices to Asia by up to 30 cents per barrel, reinforcing continued market moderation after prices hit a five-year low last month.
China launched its 2026 crude import season, allocating 206 million tonnes (4.14 million b/d), an 8% increase over 2025. The rise reflects the expansion of private refineries and growing demand for refined petroleum products, including diesel and gasoline.
Global Developments Drive Mixed Sentiment
Elsewhere, Chevron reported first oil from its South N’dola project offshore Angola, while ExxonMobil’s stake in Russia’s Sakhalin-I project faces extended divestment deadlines, hinting at Moscow’s long-term reintegration plans post-conflict.
Nigeria’s NNPCL plans asset divestments to boost government coffers despite resistance from powerful trade unions. Ghana restarted its 45,000 b/d Tema refinery after a five-year hiatus, reducing reliance on imports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.
With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential unrest in Yemen, the market remains cautious. Analysts warn that geopolitical shocks could spark volatility, but they expect physical supply disruptions to stay moderate during the holiday period.
As the oil market navigates year-end uncertainty, investors remain watchful of global supply disruptions, pricing strategies, and regional conflicts that could shape the energy landscape in 2026.