Nigeria’s oil income is getting a boost as Bonny Light crude rose to $78.62 per barrel on Friday, beating the $75 benchmark set in the Federal Government’s 2025 budget.
This upward movement puts the nation in a stronger revenue position, even though actual production remains below target. Nigeria had planned to pump over 2 million barrels per day this year, including condensates, but recent output has stayed around 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels daily, according to OPEC data.
Oil Prices Go Up as Global Talks Begin
The small price increase is partly tied to renewed hope from US–China trade talks happening this week in London. Markets are watching closely, expecting the outcome to influence oil demand globally.
As of Tuesday:
- Brent Crude traded at $67.15
- WTI Crude stood at $65.34
- Murban Crude sold for $67.09
- Natural Gas reached $3.645
Bonny Light, which usually trades slightly above Brent, continues to perform well in the global market.
Big Banks Predict Lower Prices Ahead
Despite the current gain, several investment banks remain cautious:
- Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $60, from an earlier $63.
- Morgan Stanley expects Brent to fall to $62.50 in Q3 and Q4, citing a larger-than-expected oil surplus.
- Barclays predicts Brent will average $66 in 2025, citing OPEC+’s planned production hikes.
These forecasts suggest that while Nigeria is benefiting from today’s prices, long-term revenue could face pressure if oil markets soften later in the year.
Nigeria Still Struggles With Production
Though prices are favourable now, the real challenge remains production. Nigeria has yet to meet its output target of 2.06 million barrels per day set in the 2025 national budget. With current production hovering between 1.4 and 1.6 million barrels, the country risks falling short on its expected oil earnings.
Bottom Line
For now, higher oil prices are good news for Nigeria’s economy. But with banks lowering their long-term forecasts and output still below plan, the country needs to boost production quickly to take full advantage of the global market.