Global crude oil prices are on course for a second consecutive weekly gain as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran raise fresh concerns over global supply and further reduce expectations of an early resolution to the Middle East crisis.
At the time of writing 08:00 am (WAT), Brent crude stood at $93.39 per barrel, down 0.42 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $86.32 per barrel, down 0.59 per cent. The modest daily declines have not erased the broader weekly gains, with geopolitical risks continuing to provide support for prices.
The latest rally has been driven largely by the increasingly aggressive posture from Washington towards Tehran. US President Donald Trump has threatened an unprecedented campaign of economic pressure against Iran, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was preparing what he described as the “toughest sanctions in history” against the country.
The prospect of additional sanctions has heightened market concerns about Iranian crude exports. Iran remains an important supplier to the international market, with China among the major buyers of its crude. Any measures that significantly restrict those flows could tighten global supply and provide further upward pressure on international benchmarks.
The oil market is facing additional supply risks from the wider geopolitical environment. Continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have raised concerns about disruptions to refined-product supplies, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tight and volatile energy market.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore said the opposing sides appeared increasingly entrenched while crude prices continued to climb. “Both sides are dug in but lacking the luxury of time to play the waiting game, against a backdrop of crude prices grinding unerringly higher,” he said, according to Reuters.
The market outlook is consequently becoming more bullish, with BMI and Fitch Ratings reviewing their oil-price forecasts following the latest developments in the Persian Gulf. The key issue for traders now is whether the US pressure campaign against Iran will result in a measurable reduction in Iranian oil exports or trigger further disruption across the region.
For oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, sustained crude prices above $90 per barrel could strengthen export earnings and government revenues. However, a prolonged geopolitical crisis could simultaneously increase international refined-product costs and shipping risks, making the direction of crude prices increasingly important for both oil revenues and downstream fuel economics.