Oil prices extended their rally, with the market leaning heavily on supply disruption fears as geopolitical tensions tighten. As at the time of writing 06:05 (WAT) Brent crude rose to $111.2 per barrel (+1.31%), setting the pace, while WTI climbed to $115.3 (+2.60%) and Murban surged to $119.1 (+3.69%). Natural gas dipped slightly to $2.804 (-0.25%), reflecting short-term correction rather than a shift in fundamentals.
Today’s trading session carries added weight as it coincides with the expiration of the deadline issued by U.S. President Donald Trump to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With no resolution in sight, the market is now firmly anchored on a prolonged supply disruption narrative, pushing risk premiums higher across crude benchmarks.
This is no longer a fundamentals-driven market. The tightening around the Strait has triggered aggressive forward buying, particularly for Middle Eastern grades, with Murban’s stronger gains pointing to real supply anxiety rather than speculative trades. The tone is clear security of supply is now dictating price direction.
At the same time, cost pressures are building across the value chain. Freight rates are rising, insurance premiums are hardening, and vessel movement through high-risk zones remains uncertain. These layered costs are feeding directly into crude valuations and, by extension, refined product pricing.
On the domestic front, depot prices as at Thursday before the holidays, underline an already elevated baseline. In Port Harcourt, Matrix stood at ₦1,235/litre, while Warri’s Rainoil depot closed at ₦1,245/litre. In Lagos, Wosbab was at ₦1,240/litre, reflecting a tight pricing band across key supply corridors.
However, the calm may be short-lived as analysts are predicting that prices are most likely going to surge as there is growing anticipation that Dangote refinery might review its gantry prices, a move that could reset the market benchmark. In parallel, traders, importers, and oil marketers are also expected to increase prices after the long break, aligning with the sharp uptick in global crude.
Taken together, the signals are unmistakable. With crude prices strengthening, domestic depot rates already elevated, and Dangote’s pricing decision hanging in the balance, Nigeria’s downstream market is edging towards another round of fuel price increases.