Global crude oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for an extended period as the ongoing disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to tighten supply conditions and deepen concerns over the stability of global energy markets, according to industry analysts and energy agencies.
The warning comes amid continued uncertainty over negotiations between the United States and Iran, with traders closely monitoring developments tied to the partial shutdown of one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
Oil prices briefly declined earlier this week following reports that discussions between Washington and Tehran were progressing toward a possible agreement that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease supply disruptions across global markets.
Brent crude temporarily fell below the $100 per barrel threshold before rebounding after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that there was “no rush” to finalise an agreement and confirmed that restrictions linked to the Hormuz blockade would remain in place pending further negotiations.
Analysts said the latest market movements reflected growing uncertainty over how long the disruption could continue and whether existing global supply buffers would be sufficient to stabilise the market over the medium term.
Industry estimates indicate that between 14 million and 15 million barrels per day of global oil supply have been affected by the prolonged disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical export route for crude shipments from the Middle East.
Despite the scale of the supply disruption, oil prices have so far remained below levels many market observers initially projected when the crisis began several months ago.
Energy analysts attributed the relatively moderate price response partly to existing global crude inventories, spare production capacity from major oil-producing countries and continued market expectations that diplomatic negotiations could eventually restore normal shipping activities through the waterway.
However, analysts warned that those support mechanisms may only provide temporary relief if the disruption persists.
The International Energy Agency recently cautioned that global oil markets could enter what it described as a “red zone” by July or August if supply shortages continue and commercial inventories keep declining.
According to the agency, oil stockpiles have been steadily falling while exports from parts of the Middle East remain constrained during a period of rising seasonal fuel demand.
Energy market specialists also pointed to years of weak investment in new oil production projects as another factor increasing long-term supply risks.
Analysts noted that global upstream investment has remained relatively subdued over the past decade, limiting the industry’s ability to respond quickly to major disruptions in supply.
Industry experts Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg said the global energy market was now entering another structurally tight phase caused by inadequate capital spending alongside an unprecedented physical bottleneck in oil supply.
According to the analysts, Brent crude prices could eventually move into a sustained range of between $120 and $150 per barrel if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for a prolonged period.
They argued that many market participants were still treating the current disruption as temporary despite the scale of crude supply losses already affecting the market.
The analysts further noted that the volume of supply currently disrupted exceeds levels recorded during several previous global oil crises.
They added that even if a diplomatic breakthrough is eventually reached, restoring oil flows, rebuilding inventories and stabilising shipping operations across the region could take considerable time.
Analysts also warned that continued delays in reaching a final agreement between Washington and Tehran could weaken trader confidence and trigger stronger upward pressure on crude prices as the effects of tightening physical supply conditions become more visible across global markets.
The latest developments have intensified concerns over global energy security, supply resilience and the broader economic impact of prolonged geopolitical instability affecting major oil-producing regions and international shipping routes.