Oil Prices Crash Nearly 9% in One Day as Trump Links Midterm Defeat to Iran War

Global oil prices fell by nearly 9 per cent on Wednesday as markets reacted to growing expectations of a possible end to the US-Iran war, following President Donald Trump’s admission that rising gasoline prices contributed to Republican losses in the US midterm elections.

As at the time of writing 07:20 pm (WAT) Brent crude futures declined 8.10 per cent to $95.21, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures falling 8.00 per cent to $88.40 per barrel.

According to Oilprice.com, Brent had dropped by $8.94, or 8.6 per cent, to $94.66 per barrel by 1:06 p.m. ET on Wednesday, after touching its lowest level since September 4. WTI also declined by $8.01, or 8.3 per cent, to $88.08. Brent had traded near $118 per barrel on Friday, underscoring the scale of the latest market reversal.

The sell-off followed comments from Trump, who linked the Republican Party’s midterm defeat to the economic impact of the conflict. Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday night, he said: “I think it’s the gasoline price.” Vice President JD Vance also attributed the electoral losses to the war, arguing that any honest assessment of the administration’s next steps must begin with the conflict.

The comments strengthened expectations that domestic political pressure could accelerate efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement with Tehran. Trump had earlier told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran, while renewed reports of progress in negotiations between the two countries further influenced market sentiment.

However, the prospect of an agreement remains uncertain. Analysts warned that further escalation could occur before a resolution is reached. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said US hostility would persist regardless of which political party controls Congress. Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed to have targeted Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, although Saudi authorities did not confirm an attack.

Washington is also taking steps to ease pressure on fuel markets, particularly as diesel prices remain elevated. The US Department of Energy announced plans to loan 300,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to four companies, representing nearly a third of the stockpile. The move followed pressure from lawmakers after diesel prices surged above $6.50 per gallon. Heating oil futures subsequently declined by around 7 per cent.

The decline in crude prices came despite fresh evidence of tightening US inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stocks fell by 900,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended October 30, leaving inventories 4 per cent below the five-year average. Distillate stocks also dropped by 3.6 million barrels, standing 13 per cent below the five-year average.

Meanwhile, Gulf exports of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million bpd in September and approximately three-quarters of pre-war levels, according to Vortexa.

The latest price movement highlights the growing influence of geopolitical expectations on crude markets, with traders increasingly weighing the possibility of a diplomatic settlement against persistent supply disruptions and the risk of renewed military escalation. Whether prices sustain their decline will depend largely on developments in US-Iran negotiations and the security of oil flows through the Middle East.