Global oil prices slid on Monday, while mounting fuel supply from Dangote Refinery could force Nigerian depot operators to cut fuel prices in the coming week.
Brent crude traded at $66.06 per barrel, down 0.62 or 0.93%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.70 or 1.12% to $61.98. Analysts attributed the drop to weaker global demand and steady OPEC output, adding pressure on exporters already grappling with oversupply at home.
Dangote’s Distribution Creates Supply Glut
In Nigeria, Dangote Refinery intensified deliveries under its distribution plan, rolling out more than 1,000 trucks to supply petrol across 12 states—Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Kwara, Edo, Delta, Rivers, Kogi, and the Federal Capital Territory.
Marketers confirmed that the surge has outpaced retail absorption in some regions, temporarily easing demand at depots. Last week’s gantry suspension briefly pushed depot petrol prices up by 8%, but with operations set to resume on Tuesday, inventories are expected to swell further.
“Dangote’s trucks have moved product faster than the market can absorb,” a downstream operator told Petroleumprice.ng. “If this pace continues, depot prices will inevitably adjust downward.”
Regulatory Shake-Up in Oil Contracts
Meanwhile, Abuja is weighing a major reform that could reshape upstream governance. Lawmakers are considering stripping the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) of its control over oil contracts and handing the role to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Supporters argue the shift would plug leakages and boost state revenue, while critics warn it risks creating conflicts of interest if the regulator becomes both watchdog and contract manager. The move comes as Nigeria struggles to raise output amid theft, sabotage, and underinvestment, while domestic refining slowly recovers with Dangote’s ramp-up.
Outlook
With global benchmarks under pressure and local oversupply building, analysts expect depot prices to soften in the days ahead. The dual forces of Dangote’s aggressive distribution and falling international crude values could reset market dynamics as Nigeria edges closer to aligning supply, pricing, and policy reforms.