Crude oil prices have once again slipped below the $70 per barrel mark, sending strong market signals that petroleum depot prices in Nigeria may soften further. This comes as OPEC+ continues to raise output, widening the supply-demand imbalance in the global oil market.
On Monday morning, Brent crude traded at $68.03 per barrel, down by 0.40%, while WTI settled at $66.27, dropping 0.35%. Murban crude declined to $69.46, and natural gas slumped 2.80% to $3.292 according to Oilprice.com.
Oversupply Pressures Market, Narrows Margin for Rise
Energy analysts attribute the sustained price drop to a growing global supply glut, led by OPEC+ producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. The alliance is increasing output to discipline quota violators and reassert dominance over higher-cost producers in non-OPEC regions.
“There’s more oil than the market needs right now. Summer demand has not been strong enough, and with economic uncertainty and trade tensions from the U.S., prices are unlikely to rise significantly,” said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan forecast average Brent prices at $66–$67 per barrel in 2025, with WTI hovering around $63–$64. This is well below the $70–$75 range often required to keep upstream projects viable globally.
Depot Prices in Nigeria Begin to Reflect Global Trend
As a net importer of refined petroleum products, Nigeria’s downstream pricing is deeply tied to international crude benchmarks. Falling prices are now being reflected at depot level, where major operators in Lagos have adjusted their PMS (petrol) prices.
According to Petroleumprice.ng, the latest ex-depot prices (₦/litre) are:
| Depot | PMS Price |
|---|---|
| AITEO | ₦837 |
| AIPEC | ₦838 |
| MAO | ₦838 |
| MENJ | ₦838 |
| INTEGRATED | ₦839 |
| DANGOTE | ₦840 |
| EMADEB | ₦840 |
| MATRIX (Lagos) | ₦840 |
| RAIN OIL | ₦840 |
| NIPCO | ₦844 |
“This signals welcome relief for depot operators. With Brent softening and the naira stabilising, PMS and AGO prices may trend lower in the short term,” said a downstream analyst in Lagos.
Not So Fast: FX, Logistics Still Pose Challenges
However, price transmission to retail outlets will not be instant. Marketers are grappling with existing high-priced stock, coupled with volatile exchange rates, haulage costs, and inland bridging charges.
“We can’t pass on depot savings overnight. It depends on inventory turnover, forex dynamics, and if local refiners like Dangote increase output further,” the analyst added.
Demand Side Fails to Match Supply Growth
While summer travel in North America and Europe has offered some support for demand, it hasn’t been enough to absorb the market glut. If China or the U.S. face slower growth or reinstate trade tariffs, global demand could drop further.
According to Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), OPEC+ is closely watching the market and may freeze output hikes if prices fall too steeply. But for now, the cartel remains focused on flushing the surplus.
In Nigeria, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) continues to monitor depot pricing in the deregulated environment. Ex-depot PMS prices in coastal cities have recently averaged between ₦620 and ₦645/litre, though this may ease further as global benchmarks fall.
More Flexibility Ahead
Unless there’s a major geopolitical supply disruption especially from the Middle East analysts expect oil to trade in the mid-$60s for the rest of 2025. This could allow Nigerian depots to continue moderating prices, but actual pump relief will depend on inventory cycles and forex management.
In the short term, fuel importers and depot owners may enjoy slight cost reprieves. But for everyday Nigerians to benefit at the pump, the price cuts must be passed down and that’s not always guaranteed.